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Ferro Carril vs Club Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Copa Uruguay
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
VS
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Copa Uruguay. This one's hard to separate. Club Nacional have shipped 1.1 goals a game lately, while Ferro Carril have conceded 1.67 and scored 1.17. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.29 - 0.99) back Ferro Carril to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Ferro Carril
15%
Draws
53%
Club Nacional
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Club Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Club Nacional have won more games recently than Ferro Carril.
  • Club Nacional are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Club Nacional arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Ferro Carril Clean Sheet 20%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferro Carril Club Nacional
Matches Played 6 31
Wins 4 18
Draws 0 5
Losses 2 8
Goals Scored 1.17 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferro Carril 10 / 100
Club Nacional 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferro Carril Club Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Club Nacional Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ferro Carril scored in 67% of their last 6 outings.

Ferro Carril has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Club Nacional conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Club Nacional
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferro Carril

(Home)
31 Oct
Defensor Sp.
6 : 0
Ferro Carril
22 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1
Melo Wanderers
09 Oct
Ferro Carril
2 : 1
Club Oriental De Futbol
07 Nov
Ferro Carril
0 : 1
CA Cerro
11 Oct
Ferro Carril
1 : 0
Bella Vista
Page 1 of 2

Club Nacional

(Away)
19 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Maldonado
15 Oct
Club Nacional
3 : 0
Rentistas
11 Oct
Central Esp.
0 : 1
Club Nacional
05 Oct
Club Nacional
2 : 0
Montevideo City
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2
Club Nacional
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
San Carlos -
TBD -
Boston River 1
River Plate Montevideo 0
Libertad San Carlos -
TBD -
Penarol -
Montevideo City -
Porongos -
TBD -
Maldonado 4
Albion 1
Ferro Carril -
TBD -
Club Nacional 3
Rentistas 0
Wanderers Durazno -
TBD -
Central Esp. 0
Danubio 6
Lito -
TBD -
Cerrito 2
Wanderers 3
Gladiador -
TBD -
Liverpool M. 1
Cerro Largo 0
Nacional Florida -
TBD -
Plaza Colonia 0
Juventud 1
1/8-finals
San Carlos -
Boston River -
Libertad San Carlos -
TBD -
Porongos -
Maldonado -
Ferro Carril -
Club Nacional -
Wanderers Durazno -
Danubio -
Lito -
Wanderers -
Gladiador -
Liverpool M. -
Nacional Florida -
Juventud -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -