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Ferroviaria U20 vs Mirassol U20

Brazil Brazil

Paulista U20 2025
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AI Match Summary

Ferroviaria U20 play Mirassol U20 in the Paulista U20 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ferroviaria U20 averaged 1.66 goals scored and 1 conceded. Mirassol U20 averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. In past meetings, Ferroviaria U20 won 1, Mirassol U20 won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 12, 2025 ended 4:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.98 for Ferroviaria U20 and 0.85 for Mirassol U20. This points to a Ferroviaria U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Ferroviaria U20
24%
Draws
25%
Mirassol U20
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Ferroviaria U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Ferroviaria U20 picked up more points recently compared to Mirassol U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.98 vs 0.85 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Ferroviaria U20 Clean Sheet 25%
Mirassol U20 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviaria U20 Mirassol U20
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 16 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 6 17
Goals Scored 1.66 1.03
Goals Conceded 1 1.58
Expected Goals (xG) 1.57 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.71 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2025 Paulista U20
Ferroviaria U20 vs Mirassol U20
4:2
Sep 5, 2025 Paulista U20
Mirassol U20 vs Ferroviaria U20
2:2
May 9, 2025 Paulista U20
Ferroviaria U20 vs Mirassol U20
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferroviaria U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Eduardo Oliveira
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vinicius M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.79

Mirassol U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Karam
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barbosa de Santos M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviaria U20 51 / 100
Mirassol U20 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviaria U20 Mirassol U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ferroviaria U20 or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18.8%
2.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ferroviaria U20 attacking → ← attacking Mirassol U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ferroviaria U20 scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Mirassol U20 let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.33 goals.

Ferroviaria U20 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Mirassol U20 lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 32
1.57 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
0.71 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38