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Ferroviaria vs Ituano

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Ze Vitor
22' Event
Neto Berola
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Ferroviaria
15%
Draws
20%
Ituano
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ferroviaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ferroviaria come out ahead of Ituano on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ferroviaria a 65% chance of winning this.
  • Ferroviaria have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 68%
Ituano Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviaria Ituano
Matches Played 36 35
Wins 16 12
Draws 10 8
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.28 1.11
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Serie C
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
1:3
Apr 30, 2026 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Ituano
1:1
Apr 23, 2026 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
0:1
Jan 17, 2026 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
1:1
Mar 19, 2025 Paulista A2
Ituano vs Ferroviaria
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Ze Vitor
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Ituano Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviaria 95 / 100
Ituano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviaria Ituano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferroviaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ferroviaria scored in 75% of their last 36 games.

Defensive concern: Ituano conceded in 71% of 35 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Ferroviaria has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviaria VS Ituano
1.25 Goals Scored 0.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferroviaria

(Home)
20 Sept
Ferroviaria
3 : 2
Brusque
13 Sept
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
05 Sept
Internacional de Limeira
3 : 3
Ferroviaria
29 Aug
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Confianca
23 Aug
Ypiranga FC
1 : 0
Ferroviaria
Page 1 of 8

Ituano

(Away)
29 Aug
Floresta EC
2 : 0
Ituano
22 Aug
Ituano
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
15 Aug
Volta Redonda
1 : 0
Ituano
08 Aug
Ituano
2 : 0
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
26 Jul
Brusque
1 : 0
Ituano
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Votuporanguense 1
Juventus-SP 2
Ferroviaria 2
Ituano 1
Final
Juventus-SP 2
Ferroviaria 1