Sport Picks

Brazil

Brasileiro Women Arena Fonte Luminosa

Gremio W

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ferroviaria W play Gremio W in the Brasileiro Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ferroviaria W averaged 1.94 goals scored and 0.87 conceded. Gremio W averaged 2.27 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. In past meetings, Ferroviaria W won 2, Gremio W won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Ferroviaria W and 1.25 for Gremio W. This points to a Ferroviaria W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Ferroviaria W

27%

Draws

33%

Gremio W

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Ferroviaria W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Ferroviaria W picked up more points recently compared to Gremio W.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 77%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Ferroviaria W Clean Sheet 19%

Gremio W Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 69%

Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ferroviaria W	Gremio W
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	17	15
Draws	8	5
Losses	6	10
Goals Scored	1.94	2.27
Goals Conceded	0.87	0.83
Expected Goals (xG)	2.25	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Brasileiro Women

Ferroviaria W vs Gremio W

Possession: 58% - 42% Cards: 2 - 3

0:0

Mar 26, 2025 Brasileiro Women

Gremio W vs Ferroviaria W

Possession: 45% - 47% Cards: 4 - 1

1:1

May 1, 2024 Brasileiro Women

Ferroviaria W vs Gremio W

Possession: 57% - 42% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

Apr 30, 2023 Brasileiro Women

Gremio W vs Ferroviaria W

Possession: 53% - 45% Cards: 3 - 3

1:4

May 16, 2022 Brasileiro Women

Gremio W vs Ferroviaria W

Possession: 55% - 51% Cards: 3 - 3

3:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviaria W 40 / 100

Gremio W 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ferroviaria W Gremio W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ferroviaria W or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +25.2%

3.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ferroviaria W attacking → ← attacking Gremio W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ferroviaria W scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Gremio W let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Ferroviaria W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Gremio W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 50

2.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Corinthians W	12	9	1	2	31:13	28
2	Palmeiras W	12	8	3	1	27:10	27
3	Sao Paulo W	12	8	2	2	19:8	26
4	Ferroviaria W	12	6	4	2	19:12	22
5	CR Flamengo W	12	6	4	2	19:13	22
6	Bahia W	12	6	3	3	22:16	21
7	Cruzeiro W	12	5	6	1	23:14	21
8	Internacional W	12	6	2	4	13:10	20
9	Gremio W	12	5	2	5	17:12	17
10	Bragantino W	12	5	2	5	19:20	17
11	Fluminense W	12	4	4	4	14:14	16
12	Santos W	12	3	5	4	12:15	14
13	Atletico-MG W	12	3	3	6	14:16	12
14	EC Juventude W	12	2	3	7	7:12	9
15	Mixto W	12	1	4	7	8:24	7
16	America Mineiro W	12	1	3	8	6:25	6
17	Botafogo RJ W	11	1	2	8	7:22	5
18	Vitoria W	11	0	3	8	7:28	3