Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Ferroviario Nacala play AD Pemba in the Mocambola. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ferroviario Nacala averaged 0.69 goals scored and 0.66 conceded. AD Pemba averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. In past meetings, Ferroviario Nacala won 1, AD Pemba won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 11, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.08 for Ferroviario Nacala and 0.41 for AD Pemba. This points to a Ferroviario Nacala double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Ferroviario Nacala picked up more points recently compared to AD Pemba.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.08 vs 0.41 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ferroviario Nacala | AD Pemba |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 7 |
| Wins | 11 | 2 |
| Draws | 9 | 1 |
| Losses | 9 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.66 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 0.57 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.25 | 1.29 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ferroviario Nacala scored in 48% of their last 29 games.
AD Pemba let in goals in 71% of their last 7 matches.
Games between these two average 1.00 goals.
Ferroviario Nacala went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
AD Pemba lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviario Beira | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 11:3 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Songo | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 3 | Associacao Black Bulls | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10:3 | 14 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 14 |
| 5 | Ferroviario Nampula | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:11 | 13 |
| 6 | Costa do Sol | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 7 | Ferroviario Nacala | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 8 | Sofala | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5:10 | 10 |
| 9 | ENH Vilankulo | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 | Ferroviario Maputo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3:5 | 8 |
| 11 | AD Pemba | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4:9 | 7 |
| 12 | Chingale de Tete | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1:8 | 4 |
| 13 | Baia de Pemba | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 14 | Maxaquene | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3:10 | 3 |