Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Figueirense vs Joinville

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, Florianópolis
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Kayke
32'
Gabriel Terra
38'
Arthur Henrique

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense game between Figueirense and Joinville finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Figueirense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Figueirense
35%
Draws
26%
Joinville
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Figueirense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Figueirense come out ahead of Joinville on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Catarinense form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Figueirense have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Figueirense Clean Sheet 68%
Joinville Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Figueirense Joinville
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 1.09 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Figueirense
0:3
Feb 6, 2026 Catarinense
Figueirense vs Joinville
1:0
Jan 7, 2026 Catarinense
Joinville vs Figueirense
2:3
Nov 23, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Figueirense vs Joinville
2:1
Nov 16, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Figueirense
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Figueirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Kayke
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Joinville Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Figueirense 41 / 100
Joinville 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Figueirense Joinville

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Figueirense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Figueirense's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Joinville has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Figueirense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Figueirense VS Joinville
0.75 Goals Scored 0.67
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Figueirense

(Home)
08 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 2
Ferroviaria
25 Jul
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Figueirense
13 Jul
Figueirense
0 : 0
Volta Redonda
06 Jul
Brusque
3 : 1
Figueirense
28 Jun
Figueirense
1 : 1
Guarani
Page 1 of 7

Joinville

(Away)
07 Jun
Sao Luiz
3 : 1
Joinville
30 May
Joinville
2 : 0
Guarany de Bage
23 May
Joinville
0 : 0
Cianorte
16 May
Santa Catarina
1 : 0
Joinville
10 May
FC Cascavel
1 : 0
Joinville
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marcilio Dias 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
2 Carlos Renaux 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
3 Figueirense 6 2 0 4 6:7 7
4 Joinville 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Relegation - Catarinense 2 2027 (Main)