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Finland U21 vs Lithuania U21

Europe Europe

Baltic Cup U21 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Vaananen S.
40'
Stankevicius N.
51'
Remeikis M.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Finland U21 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Finland U21
6%
Draws
4%
Lithuania U21
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Finland U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Finland U21 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Finland U21 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Finland U21 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lithuania U21, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Finland U21 Clean Sheet 20%
Lithuania U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Finland U21 Lithuania U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 16 2
Draws 5 6
Losses 9 21
Goals Scored 3.13 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.75 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 3.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2024 Baltic Cup U21
Finland U21 vs Lithuania U21
2:0
Oct 16, 2018 Euro U21
Finland U21 vs Lithuania U21
0:2
Mar 23, 2018 Euro U21
Lithuania U21 vs Finland U21
0:2
Sep 5, 2013 Euro U21
Lithuania U21 vs Finland U21
0:1
Jun 11, 2013 Euro U21
Finland U21 vs Lithuania U21
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Finland U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Salomaa H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.41
Avg xA / game 1.56

Lithuania U21 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finland U21 85 / 100
Lithuania U21 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Finland U21 Lithuania U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FIN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Finland U21's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lithuania U21 conceded in 97% of 29 recent games.

Finland U21 has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Finland U21 VS Lithuania U21
3.13 Goals Scored 0.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Finland U21

(Home)
08 Jun
Norway U21
0 : 2
Finland U21
04 Jun
Sweden U21
1 : 3
Finland U21
31 Mar
Finland U21
3 : 0
Cyprus U21
26 Mar
San Marino U21
0 : 8
Finland U21
18 Nov
Finland U21
0 : 0
Kosovo U21
Page 1 of 6

Lithuania U21

(Away)
09 Jun
Lithuania U21
2 : 2
Latvia U21
07 Jun
Estonia U21
2 : 2
Lithuania U21
27 Mar
Ukraine U21
1 : 1
Lithuania U21
18 Nov
Lithuania U21
1 : 2
Turkey U21
13 Nov
Croatia U21
4 : 0
Lithuania U21
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Estonia U211
Finland U210
Latvia U212
Lithuania U211
Final
Estonia U213
Latvia U214
Finland U212
Lithuania U210