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Fiorenzuola vs Sasso Marconi

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D 2024/2025 Stadio comunale
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fiorenzuola play Sasso Marconi in the Serie D - Group D 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Fiorenzuola averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Sasso Marconi averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. In past meetings, Fiorenzuola won 3, Sasso Marconi won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 12, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for Fiorenzuola and 1.30 for Sasso Marconi. This points to a Sasso Marconi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Fiorenzuola
19%
Draws
45%
Sasso Marconi
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Sasso Marconi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Fiorenzuola picked up more points recently compared to Sasso Marconi.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 1.30 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Fiorenzuola Clean Sheet 19%
Sasso Marconi Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fiorenzuola Sasso Marconi
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 0.63 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.35

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Fiorenzuola vs Sasso Marconi
1:2
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Sasso Marconi vs Fiorenzuola
0:1
Jun 19, 2021 Serie D - Group D
Sasso Marconi vs Fiorenzuola
0:2
Feb 14, 2021 Serie D - Group D
Fiorenzuola vs Sasso Marconi
3:0
Apr 1, 2020 Serie D - Group D
Fiorenzuola vs Sasso Marconi
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fiorenzuola Compare

Top Goalscorer Carrozza A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sasso Marconi Compare

Top Goalscorer Mambelli E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Geroni E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fiorenzuola 36 / 100
Sasso Marconi 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fiorenzuola Sasso Marconi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Sasso Marconi or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fiorenzuola attacking → ← attacking Sasso Marconi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fiorenzuola scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Sasso Marconi let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Fiorenzuola went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Sasso Marconi lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 34
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Forli FC34273475:2484
2Ravenna34235665:2774
3Lentigione341811548:2765
4Tau34189754:2763
5Pistoiese34187945:2361
6Imolese341411952:4453
7Cittadella Vis Modena341381348:4047
8Piacenza3410121238:4042
9Prato341191434:3842
10Tuttocuoio3410121232:4342
11SCD Progresso3410111324:3241
12San Marino Calcio341081638:5138
13Sasso Marconi349101539:5137
14Corticella341061837:6536
15Sammaurese347101727:3731
16Fiorenzuola34752221:4626
17Zenith Prato341081636:5123
18United Riccione34572222:6922