Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Atmosfera host BFA Vilnius in the I Lyga. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. FK Atmosfera have averaged 1.61 scored and 1.36 conceded recently, against BFA Vilnius's 1.55 scored and 1.38 conceded. Past meetings favor FK Atmosfera slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 16, 2026, ending 0:5. Model xG sits at 1.13 vs 1.94, favoring BFA Vilnius. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
FK Atmosfera
30%
Draws
51%
BFA Vilnius
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: BFA Vilnius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and BFA Vilnius come out ahead of FK Atmosfera on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on BFA Vilnius taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
FK Atmosfera Clean Sheet 10%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Atmosfera BFA Vilnius
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 16
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.61 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs FK Atmosfera
0:5
Nov 9, 2025 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius
2:2
Jun 28, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs FK Atmosfera
1:0
Oct 13, 2024 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs FK Atmosfera
0:2
May 25, 2024 I Lyga
FK Atmosfera vs BFA Vilnius
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Atmosfera 18 / 100
BFA Vilnius 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Atmosfera BFA Vilnius

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFA Vilnius Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Atmosfera found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: BFA Vilnius conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

FK Atmosfera has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FK Atmosfera VS BFA Vilnius
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Atmosfera

(Home)
11 Sept
FK Babrungas
3 : 2
FK Atmosfera
05 Sept
FK Atmosfera
3 : 1
Tauras Taurage
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1
FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
Dainava Alytus
1 : 1
FK Atmosfera
14 Aug
Transinvest 2
2 : 0
FK Atmosfera
Page 1 of 6

BFA Vilnius

(Away)
12 Sept
Garliava
2 : 3
BFA Vilnius
04 Sept
BFA Vilnius
2 : 1
FK Babrungas
28 Aug
Tauras Taurage
2 : 2
BFA Vilnius
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
15 Aug
Dainava Alytus
0 : 0
BFA Vilnius
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 23 20 1 2 61:12 61
2 FK Babrungas 24 18 4 2 42:11 58
3 BE1 NFA 23 15 2 6 41:24 47
4 Neptunas 24 14 2 8 32:28 44
5 Zalgiris 2 24 13 4 7 38:31 43
6 BFA Vilnius 24 13 3 8 38:34 42
7 Tauras Taurage 24 12 4 8 40:29 40
8 Dainava Alytus 23 10 7 6 33:23 37
9 FK Atmosfera 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
10 Jonava 24 7 6 11 26:30 27
11 Hegelmann Litauen 2 24 7 1 16 30:55 22
12 Garliava 23 6 4 13 25:27 22
13 Transinvest 2 24 6 3 15 28:56 21
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 23 6 1 16 20:36 19
15 Ekranas 24 4 2 18 23:52 14
16 Siauliai 2 24 3 5 16 21:54 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)