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FK Beograd vs Sturt Lions FC

Australia Australia

NPL South Australia Frank Mitchell Park, Adelaide
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Atkinson D.
22'
Falco M.
45' Event
Marrone M.

AI Match Summary

The NPL South Australia game between FK Beograd and Sturt Lions FC finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sturt Lions FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
FK Beograd
40%
Draws
29%
Sturt Lions FC
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Sturt Lions FC come out ahead of FK Beograd on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
FK Beograd Clean Sheet 20%
Sturt Lions FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Beograd Sturt Lions FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 16
Draws 4 2
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 2 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs FK Beograd
2:1
Feb 28, 2026 NPL South Australia
FK Beograd vs Sturt Lions FC
1:3
Aug 11, 2023 NPL South Australia
FK Beograd vs Sturt Lions FC
3:1
May 6, 2023 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs FK Beograd
0:1
Aug 13, 2022 NPL South Australia
Sturt Lions FC vs FK Beograd
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Beograd Compare

Top Goalscorer Atkinson D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Sturt Lions FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Marrone M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hassan M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Beograd 32 / 100
Sturt Lions FC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Beograd Sturt Lions FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FK Beograd scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Sturt Lions FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

FK Beograd has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FK Beograd VS Sturt Lions FC
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Beograd

(Home)
19 Jul
FK Beograd
0 : 2
Adelaide Utd U23
15 Jul
FK Beograd
2 : 3
North Sunshine Eagles
04 Jul
FK Beograd
1 : 0
West Adelaide
27 Jun
Playford Patriots
0 : 1
FK Beograd
20 Jun
FK Beograd
2 : 0
West Torrens Birkalla
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Sturt Lions FC

(Away)
18 Jul
West Adelaide
0 : 0
Sturt Lions FC
04 Jul
Sturt Lions FC
1 : 0
Playford Patriots
26 Jun
West Torrens Birkalla
4 : 1
Sturt Lions FC
20 Jun
Sturt Lions FC
6 : 0
Para
13 Jun
MetroStars
1 : 0
Sturt Lions FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1MetroStars18114348:1937
2West Torrens Birkalla18113445:2636
3Adelaide City18106235:1636
4FK Beograd1893631:2130
5Playford Patriots1885536:2629
6Croydon1884640:3228
7Adelaide Utd U231867524:2425
8Sturt Lions FC18711030:3022
9Campbelltown City1864828:2922
10West Adelaide1847733:3419
11Adelaide Comets18341119:3513
12Para1802169:862
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL South Australia (Play Offs)
Relegation - SA State League 2027 (Main)