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FK Daugava Riga vs BFC Daugavpils

Latvia Latvia

Virslīga 2014
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Zils V.
19' Event
Joksts E.
39' Event
Markevicius T.

AI Match Summary

The Virslīga 2014 game between FK Daugava Riga and BFC Daugavpils finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FK Daugava Riga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
FK Daugava Riga
20%
Draws
80%
BFC Daugavpils
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: BFC Daugavpils

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • FK Daugava Riga haven't matched BFC Daugavpils's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Virslīga 2014 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
FK Daugava Riga Clean Sheet 20%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Daugava Riga BFC Daugavpils
Matches Played 24 31
Wins 9 12
Draws 3 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.42 1.35
Goals Conceded 1.92 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2015 League Cup
BFC Daugavpils vs FK Daugava Riga
0:0
Aug 28, 2014 Virsliga
FK Daugava Riga vs BFC Daugavpils
4:2
Jun 29, 2014 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs FK Daugava Riga
0:1
May 14, 2014 Virsliga
FK Daugava Riga vs BFC Daugavpils
1:0
May 10, 2014 Virsliga
FK Daugava Riga vs BFC Daugavpils
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Daugava Riga Compare

Top Goalscorer Zils V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joksts E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakano R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ryzhevski P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Daugava Riga 36 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Daugava Riga BFC Daugavpils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFC Daugavpils Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Daugava Riga found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (23 games).

BFC Daugavpils let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: BFC Daugavpils registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS BFC Daugavpils
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Daugava Riga

(Home)
04 Apr
Jelgava
:
FK Daugava Riga
08 Nov
Skonto
4 : 1
FK Daugava Riga
01 Nov
FK Daugava Riga
1 : 3
Jelgava
26 Oct
Spartaks Jurmala
1 : 0
FK Daugava Riga
20 Oct
FK Daugava Riga
2 : 4
FK Liepaja
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BFC Daugavpils

(Away)
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3
FK Auda Riga
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
Ogre United
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ventspils 36 26 5 5 75:20 83
2 Skonto 36 25 1 10 77:34 71
3 Jelgava 36 20 10 6 57:27 70
4 FK Liepaja 36 21 3 12 72:45 66
5 FC Daugava Daugavpils 36 19 8 9 53:39 65
6 Spartaks Jurmala 36 14 9 13 38:32 51
7 FK Daugava Riga 36 13 4 19 48:64 43
8 BFC Daugavpils 36 8 5 23 30:65 29
9 FK Metta 36 3 7 26 26:69 16
10 FC Jurmala 36 2 6 28 29:110 7
Relegation - Virslīga 2014 (Relegation)
Promotion - Champions League 2015/2016 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2015/2016 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2015/2016 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2015/2016 (Qualification)