Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FK Liepaja vs Grobina

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Daugavas stadions, Liepāja
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Oloko E.
Assist: Ogunniyi A.
25'
Oloko E.
43'
Straalman B.

AI Match Summary

FK Liepaja in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
FK Liepaja
15%
Draws
8%
Grobina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Liepaja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • FK Liepaja have won more games recently than Grobina.
  • Model gives FK Liepaja a 77% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 19%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Liepaja Grobina
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 5
Draws 4 9
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.37 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Grobina
3:1
Jun 16, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs FK Liepaja
1:0
Apr 28, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Grobina
1:1
Sep 21, 2025 Virsliga
Grobina vs FK Liepaja
0:1
Jun 30, 2025 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Grobina
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Leidsman K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Grobina Compare

Top Goalscorer Dodo
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Liepaja 85 / 100
Grobina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Liepaja Grobina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Liepaja Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Grobina has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: FK Liepaja remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FK Liepaja VS Grobina
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Liepaja

(Home)
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
09 Aug
Super Nova
1 : 2
FK Liepaja
02 Aug
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
FK Liepaja
30 Jul
Austria Vienna
3 : 1
FK Liepaja
26 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 2
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 6

Grobina

(Away)
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
17 Aug
FK Auda Riga
3 : 2
Grobina
10 Aug
RFS
6 : 1
Grobina
02 Aug
Riga FC
4 : 0
Grobina
27 Jul
Grobina
2 : 2
Ogre United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 25 21 2 2 62:17 65
2 Riga FC 25 20 4 1 76:21 64
3 FK Auda Riga 25 15 4 6 42:26 49
4 BFC Daugavpils 27 10 7 10 33:31 37
5 FK Liepaja 26 11 4 11 36:38 37
6 Jelgava 27 7 7 13 28:46 28
7 Super Nova 25 8 4 13 26:37 28
8 Grobina 27 4 9 14 19:50 21
9 Tukums 2000 27 4 8 15 40:54 20
10 Ogre United 26 3 5 18 26:68 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)