Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FK Liepaja vs Super Nova

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Daugavas stadions, Liepāja
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Lizunovs V.
Assist: Pathe N.
37' Event
Gueye D.
(Penalty)
42'
Leidsman K.

AI Match Summary

FK Liepaja in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
FK Liepaja
35%
Draws
35%
Super Nova
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Liepaja lately — more wins on the board than Super Nova.
  • Model gives FK Liepaja a 30% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 20%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Liepaja Super Nova
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.33 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
1:2
Jun 12, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
2:1
Apr 23, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
1:2
Nov 9, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs FK Liepaja
3:0
Aug 25, 2025 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Patijcuks D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Super Nova Compare

Top Goalscorer Lizunovs V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Liepaja 40 / 100
Super Nova 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Liepaja Super Nova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Liepaja Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Super Nova's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

FK Liepaja has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FK Liepaja VS Super Nova
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Liepaja

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 6

Super Nova

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
10 Sept
Super Nova
1 : 0
Tukums 2000
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
Super Nova
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)