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FK Metta vs FC Jurmala

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Virslīga 2014
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Metta play FC Jurmala in the Virslīga 2014. FK Metta are favorites here. Recently, FK Metta averaged 2.23 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. FC Jurmala averaged 0.66 goals scored and 3.62 conceded. In past meetings, FK Metta won 1, FC Jurmala won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 27, 2014 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.98 for FK Metta and 0.94 for FC Jurmala. This points to a FK Metta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
FK Metta
15%
Draws
15%
FC Jurmala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Metta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • FK Metta picked up more points recently compared to FC Jurmala.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.98 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 69%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
FK Metta Clean Sheet 24%
FC Jurmala Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Metta FC Jurmala
Matches Played 40 29
Wins 18 1
Draws 4 4
Losses 18 24
Goals Scored 2.23 0.66
Goals Conceded 1.43 3.62

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2014 Virsliga
FC Jurmala vs FK Metta
1:0
Jul 26, 2014 Virsliga
FK Metta vs FC Jurmala
1:1
Jun 1, 2014 Virsliga
FC Jurmala vs FK Metta
0:3
Apr 12, 2014 Virsliga
FK Metta vs FC Jurmala
2:4
Sep 30, 2013 Virsliga
FK Metta vs FC Jurmala
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Metta Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalnins G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.12
Avg xA / game 1.38

FC Jurmala Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Metta 68 / 100
FC Jurmala 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Metta FC Jurmala

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Metta Win (1)
Secondary Pick FK Metta & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +12.7%
1.61
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.7%
1.59
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FK Metta attacking → ← attacking FC Jurmala

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Metta scored in 80% of their last 40 games.

FC Jurmala let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

FK Metta went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

FC Jurmala lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 7
2.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ventspils36265575:2083
2Skonto362511077:3471
3Jelgava362010657:2770
4FK Liepaja362131272:4566
5FC Daugava Daugavpils36198953:3965
6Spartaks Jurmala361491338:3251
7FK Daugava Riga361341948:6443
8BFC Daugavpils36852330:6529
9FK Metta36372626:6916
10FC Jurmala36262829:1107