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Stadium Background

FK Minija vs Neptunas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Kasparavicius J.
(Penalty)
61' Event
Kasparavicius J.
90' Event
Diawara M.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

FK Minija in this I Lyga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Minija.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
FK Minija
15%
Draws
24%
Neptunas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Minija

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Minija lately — more wins on the board than Neptunas.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on FK Minija taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
FK Minija Clean Sheet 20%
Neptunas Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Minija Neptunas
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 27 16
Draws 1 2
Losses 2 12
Goals Scored 2.7 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 I Lyga
FK Minija vs Neptunas
2:1
May 16, 2026 I Lyga
Neptunas vs FK Minija
1:3
Jul 27, 2025 I Lyga
Neptunas vs FK Minija
0:1
Mar 15, 2025 I Lyga
FK Minija vs Neptunas
0:4
Sep 20, 2024 I Lyga
Neptunas vs FK Minija
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Minija Compare

Top Goalscorer Kasparavicius J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Neptunas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Minija 85 / 100
Neptunas 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Minija Neptunas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Minija Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FK Minija scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

FK Minija has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Neptunas conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

FK Minija VS Neptunas
3.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Minija

(Home)
02 Oct
FK Minija
5 : 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
19 Sept
FK Minija
2 : 1
Neptunas
12 Sept
Dainava Alytus
0 : 3
FK Minija
05 Sept
FK Minija
3 : 0
Transinvest 2
01 Sept
FK Minija
3 : 2
Dainava Alytus
Page 1 of 6

Neptunas

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Minija
2 : 1
Neptunas
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
07 Sept
Zalgiris 2
1 : 0
Neptunas
29 Aug
Neptunas
3 : 1
FK Atmosfera
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 25 22 1 2 68:13 67
2 FK Babrungas 25 19 4 2 43:11 61
3 BE1 NFA 25 16 3 6 46:26 51
4 Zalgiris 2 26 14 4 8 40:33 46
5 Neptunas 25 14 2 9 33:30 44
6 BFA Vilnius 26 13 4 9 40:37 43
7 Tauras Taurage 25 13 4 8 43:31 43
8 Dainava Alytus 26 11 8 7 37:27 41
9 FK Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 37:33 30
10 Garliava 25 8 4 13 31:28 28
11 Jonava 25 7 6 12 28:33 27
12 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 26 7 2 17 26:46 23
13 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 29:58 21
14 Hegelmann Litauen 2 25 6 1 18 26:59 19
15 Siauliai 2 26 4 6 16 30:59 18
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 25:58 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)