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FK Panevezys vs FK Kauno Zalgiris - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lithuania Lithuania

TOPLYGA Aukstaitijos Stadium, Panevėžys
FK Panevezys Logo

FK Panevezys

0 - 1
FT
FK Kauno Zalgiris Logo

FK Kauno Zalgiris

Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Leo Ribeiro In: Krekovic L.
Out: Leo Ribeiro
46'
Sub
Veliulis E. In: Kouadio S.
Out: Veliulis E.
55'
Sub
Baldassarra F. In: Burba M.
Out: Baldassarra F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The TOPLYGA game between FK Panevezys and FK Kauno Zalgiris finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FK Kauno Zalgiris.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
FK Panevezys
15%
Draws
42%
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Panevezys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FK Kauno Zalgiris come out ahead of FK Panevezys on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans FK Panevezys's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FK Kauno Zalgiris here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
FK Panevezys Clean Sheet 20%
FK Kauno Zalgiris Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Panevezys FK Kauno Zalgiris
Matches Played 32 34
Wins 14 15
Draws 4 11
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.31 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.22 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 TOPLYGA
FK Panevezys vs FK Kauno Zalgiris
0:1
Jul 11, 2026 TOPLYGA
FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
3:0
May 10, 2026 TOPLYGA
FK Panevezys vs FK Kauno Zalgiris
1:1
Mar 10, 2026 TOPLYGA
FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
4:0
Feb 16, 2026 Super Cup
FK Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Panevezys Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

FK Kauno Zalgiris Compare

Top Goalscorer Krekovic L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Panevezys 40 / 100
FK Kauno Zalgiris 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Panevezys FK Kauno Zalgiris

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Panevezys Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FK Panevezys scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

FK Panevezys has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

FK Kauno Zalgiris let in goals in 53% of their last 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

FK Panevezys VS FK Kauno Zalgiris
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Panevezys

(Home)
03 Oct
Zalgiris
0 : 2
FK Panevezys
26 Sept
FK Panevezys
2 : 0
BFA Vilnius
13 Sept
FK Panevezys
0 : 1
FK Kauno Zalgiris
07 Sept
FC Hegelmann
1 : 3
FK Panevezys
03 Sept
Banga
0 : 3
FK Panevezys
Page 1 of 7

FK Kauno Zalgiris

(Away)
20 Sept
FA Siauliai
0 : 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
16 Sept
Zalgiris
3 : 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
13 Sept
FK Panevezys
0 : 1
FK Kauno Zalgiris
09 Sept
FK Kauno Zalgiris
5 : 1
Suduva
06 Sept
FK Kauno Zalgiris
5 : 0
Dziugas Telsiai
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Kauno Zalgiris 28 14 9 5 56:20 51
2 Suduva 29 13 11 5 39:29 50
3 Zalgiris 29 14 5 10 45:34 47
4 Transinvest 28 13 6 9 43:35 45
5 Banga 28 11 8 9 32:28 41
6 Dziugas Telsiai 28 10 8 10 36:40 38
7 FK Panevezys 28 9 5 14 29:43 32
8 FC Hegelmann 29 4 14 11 31:48 26
9 FA Siauliai 29 3 8 18 24:58 17
10 Riteriai 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga 2027 (Main)