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FK Skopje vs Vardar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Skopje host Vardar in the 1. MFL. Little to choose between these two on current form. Vardar have shipped 0.9 goals a game lately, while FK Skopje have conceded 0.64 and scored 1.82. Head-to-head, FK Skopje have won 1 to Vardar's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Nov 16, 2024, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.88 - 1.69) back FK Skopje to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
FK Skopje
30%
Draws
51%
Vardar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • FK Skopje haven't matched Vardar's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Vardar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular 1. MFL form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
FK Skopje Clean Sheet 13%
Vardar Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Skopje Vardar
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 18 19
Draws 3 5
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.82 2.1
Goals Conceded 0.64 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 16, 2024 Club Friendly
FK Skopje vs Vardar
0:0
May 21, 2023 1. MFL
FK Skopje vs Vardar
0:3
Feb 8, 2023 Club Friendly
FK Skopje vs Vardar
1:3
Jul 23, 2022 Club Friendly
Vardar vs FK Skopje
0:1
Oct 20, 2021 Macedonian Cup
Vardar vs FK Skopje
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Skopje 10 / 100
Vardar 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Skopje Vardar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FK Skopje scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Vardar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: FK Skopje stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Skopje VS Vardar
0.5 Goals Scored 2
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Skopje

(Home)
23 Sept
Bregalnica Stip
1 : 0
FK Skopje
14 Sept
Shkendija Haracine
1 : 0
FK Skopje
09 Sept
Kozuf Gevgelija
0 : 1
FK Skopje
05 Sept
FK Skopje
1 : 2
Bashkimi
29 Aug
Arsimi
0 : 0
FK Skopje
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Vardar

(Away)
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1
Vardar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shkendija Tetovo 8 6 1 1 20:8 19
2 Struga 8 5 2 1 19:5 17
3 Vardar 8 4 2 2 14:8 14
4 Tikves 8 3 4 1 17:7 13
5 Shkendija Haracine 8 4 1 3 6:9 13
6 Bregalnica Stip 8 3 1 4 11:13 10
7 Sileks 8 2 3 3 13:10 9
8 Arsimi 8 2 2 4 6:19 8
9 Bashkimi 8 1 1 6 7:25 4
10 FK Skopje 8 0 3 5 3:12 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2027/2028 (Main)