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FK Smiltene vs Leevon PPK

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Nakotnes liga
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Smiltene play Leevon PPK in the Nakotnes liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, FK Smiltene averaged 1.53 goals scored and 2.15 conceded. Leevon PPK averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, FK Smiltene won 0, Leevon PPK won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for FK Smiltene and 2.50 for Leevon PPK. This points to a Leevon PPK double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
FK Smiltene
28%
Draws
50%
Leevon PPK
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Leevon PPK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • FK Smiltene picked up more points recently compared to Leevon PPK.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 2.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%
Leevon PPK Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Smiltene Leevon PPK
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 7 14
Draws 7 8
Losses 20 8
Goals Scored 1.53 1.6
Goals Conceded 2.15 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Leevon PPK
0:0
Aug 30, 2025 Nakotnes liga
Leevon PPK vs FK Smiltene
3:2
Apr 27, 2025 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Leevon PPK
0:4
Aug 11, 2024 Nakotnes liga
Leevon PPK vs FK Smiltene
2:2
Apr 13, 2024 Nakotnes liga
FK Smiltene vs Leevon PPK
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Smiltene 22 / 100
Leevon PPK 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Smiltene Leevon PPK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Leevon PPK or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +57.1%
7.14
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

FK Smiltene attacking → ← attacking Leevon PPK

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Smiltene scored in 74% of their last 34 games.

Leevon PPK let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

FK Smiltene went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Leevon PPK lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 50
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.75
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FK Metta12101142:1131
2Valmiera1292132:1229
3Riga Mariners1284025:1028
4Leevon PPK1273220:1524
5Alberts JDFS1262425:2020
6Marupe1261522:1519
7Super Nova 21254319:1719
8Riga FC 21251619:2216
9Skanste1141620:2113
10RFS 21223715:269
11Tukums 2000 21222816:318
12JFK Ventspils1114612:207
13Rezekne1212910:365
14FK Smiltene1204812:334