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Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Maracanã
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Flamengo RJ play Palmeiras in the Serie A Betano. It looks like a close match. Recently, Flamengo RJ averaged 2.18 goals scored and 0.79 conceded. Palmeiras averaged 1.7 goals scored and 0.63 conceded. In past meetings, Flamengo RJ won 3, Palmeiras won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 24, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Flamengo RJ and 1.50 for Palmeiras. This points to a Flamengo RJ double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Flamengo RJ
20%
Draws
38%
Palmeiras
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Flamengo RJ

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Flamengo RJ picked up more points recently compared to Palmeiras.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Flamengo RJ Clean Sheet 16%
Palmeiras Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Flamengo RJ Palmeiras
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 19 21
Draws 5 7
Losses 4 2
Goals Scored 2.18 1.7
Goals Conceded 0.79 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Serie A Betano
Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras
0:3
Nov 29, 2025 Copa Libertadores
Palmeiras vs Flamengo RJ
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie A Betano
Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras
3:2
May 25, 2025 Serie A Betano
Palmeiras vs Flamengo RJ
0:2
Aug 11, 2024 Serie A Betano
Flamengo RJ vs Palmeiras
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Flamengo RJ Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Palmeiras Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Allan Elias
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Flamengo RJ 41 / 100
Palmeiras 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Flamengo RJ Palmeiras

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Flamengo RJ or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.8%
2.17
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Flamengo RJ attacking → ← attacking Palmeiras

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Flamengo RJ scored in 89% of their last 28 games.

Palmeiras let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Flamengo RJ went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Palmeiras lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 70
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Palmeiras18125130:1341
2Flamengo RJ17104331:1634
3Fluminense1894528:2331
4Athletico-PR1893624:1830
5Bragantino1892725:1929
6Bahia1775525:2326
7Coritiba1875624:2426
8Sao Paulo1874723:2025
9Atletico-MG1873822:2324
10Corinthians1866618:1924
11Cruzeiro1866624:2824
12Botafogo RJ1764731:3122
13Vitoria1764721:2522
14Internacional1856721:2221
15Santos1856726:2921
16Gremio1856720:2321
17Vasco1855822:2920
18Remo1846821:2918
19Mirassol1744918:2416
20Chapecoense-SC17161017:339