Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fleury-Merogis vs Concarneau

France France

National 2025/2026 Stade Robert Bobin, Bondoufle
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Sub
Badin C. In: Bovis E.
Out: Badin C.
27' Event
Da Silva F.
Assist: Inquel S.
44' Event
Goujon L.
Assist: Baldoni S.

AI Match Summary

Concarneau in this National 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Concarneau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Fleury-Merogis
6%
Draws
90%
Concarneau
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Concarneau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fleury-Merogis lately — more wins on the board than Concarneau.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Concarneau taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Fleury-Merogis Clean Sheet 23%
Concarneau Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fleury-Merogis Concarneau
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 8
Draws 6 11
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Ligue 3
Fleury-Merogis vs Concarneau
0:4
Sep 19, 2025 Ligue 3
Concarneau vs Fleury-Merogis
0:1
May 28, 2016 National 2 - Group D
Fleury-Merogis vs Concarneau
0:0
Jan 9, 2016 National 2 - Group D
Concarneau vs Fleury-Merogis
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fleury-Merogis Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Concarneau Compare

Top Goalscorer Baldoni S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Da Silva F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fleury-Merogis 10 / 100
Concarneau 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fleury-Merogis Concarneau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CON Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fleury-Merogis found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (28 games).

Concarneau let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Concarneau lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fleury-Merogis VS Concarneau
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fleury-Merogis

(Home)
25 Jul
Versailles
2 : 1
Fleury-Merogis
17 Jul
Creteil
3 : 1
Fleury-Merogis
15 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 2
Boulogne
11 Jul
Fleury-Merogis
0 : 5
Nantes
15 May
Fleury-Merogis
1 : 2
Rouen
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Concarneau

(Away)
25 Jul
Laval
1 : 2
Concarneau
22 Jul
Guingamp
0 : 1
Concarneau
18 Jul
Brest
2 : 2
Concarneau
11 Jul
Concarneau
1 : 2
Lorient
15 May
Concarneau
2 : 2
Villefranche
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Dijon321811352:2565
2Sochaux321610651:2658
3Rouen321413543:2955
4Fleury-Merogis32159847:3054
5Versailles32158946:3453
6Orleans32149942:4251
7Le Puy-en-Velay321211945:3847
8Caen32816839:3440
9Concarneau328141032:3738
10Valenciennes321081435:4437
11Aubagne FC329101338:4637
12Villefranche321071534:4537
13Quevilly32891534:4533
14Paris 13 Atletico327111426:4132
15Bourg Peronnas32871725:4431
16Chateauroux326131335:4930
17Stade Briochin325121535:5027
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)