Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Flora vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
Flora Logo

Flora

3 - 2
FT
Parnu JK Vaprus Logo

Parnu JK Vaprus

Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Limberg M.
Assist: Viidas S.
60' Event
Sorga E.
60'
Sub
Kuraksin D. In: Alliku R.
Out: Kuraksin D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Flora in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Flora.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Flora
15%
Draws
27%
Parnu JK Vaprus
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Flora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Flora lately — more wins on the board than Parnu JK Vaprus.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Flora taking it.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • History favors Flora here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Flora Clean Sheet 10%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Flora Parnu JK Vaprus
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 19 11
Draws 3 4
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 2 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Meistriliiga
Flora vs Parnu JK Vaprus
3:2
Aug 23, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Flora
1:2
Jun 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Flora
1:2
Apr 12, 2026 Meistriliiga
Flora vs Parnu JK Vaprus
2:0
Jan 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Flora
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Flora Compare

Top Goalscorer Sorga E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Alamaa S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Limberg M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kapper S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Flora 83 / 100
Parnu JK Vaprus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Flora Parnu JK Vaprus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Flora Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Flora's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Flora has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Parnu JK Vaprus let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Flora VS Parnu JK Vaprus
1.38 Goals Scored 2
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Flora

(Home)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Nomme Utd
2 : 3
Flora
08 Sept
Narva
2 : 2
Flora
05 Sept
Flora
2 : 1
Kalju
02 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Tammeka Tartu
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Parnu JK Vaprus

(Away)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
16 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
2 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)