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Fluminense vs Coritiba

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Betano Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Fri, Oct 9, 2026
VS
12:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fluminense host Coritiba in the Serie A Betano. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Coritiba have shipped 1.6 goals a game lately, while Fluminense have conceded 1.16 and scored 1.53. Head-to-head, Fluminense have won 2 to Coritiba's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.82 - 1.54) back Fluminense to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Fluminense
15%
Draws
37%
Coritiba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fluminense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Coritiba haven't matched Fluminense's recent run of results.
  • Fluminense are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie A Betano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Fluminense Clean Sheet 15%
Coritiba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fluminense Coritiba
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 14 9
Draws 12 10
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.53 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.82 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Fluminense
1:1
Nov 26, 2023 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Coritiba
2:1
Jul 24, 2023 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Fluminense
2:0
Aug 20, 2022 Serie A Betano
Fluminense vs Coritiba
5:2
May 1, 2022 Serie A Betano
Coritiba vs Fluminense
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fluminense 75 / 100
Coritiba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fluminense Coritiba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fluminense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Fluminense's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Coritiba let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Fluminense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Fluminense VS Coritiba
1.5 Goals Scored 1.71
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.14
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 86%
38% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Fluminense

(Home)
20 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 3
Fluminense
15 Sept
Platense
2 : 1
Fluminense
12 Sept
Atletico-MG
3 : 1
Fluminense
08 Sept
Fluminense
2 : 0
Platense
06 Sept
Fluminense
1 : 0
Vasco
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Coritiba

(Away)
19 Sept
Vasco
5 : 0
Coritiba
12 Sept
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
31 Aug
Remo
2 : 3
Coritiba
23 Aug
Coritiba
2 : 1
Corinthians
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 28 18 6 4 55:23 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 47:21 57
3 Athletico-PR 28 14 7 7 43:32 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 44:36 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 43:35 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 42:40 45
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 36:32 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 41:40 38
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 37:43 38
10 Bragantino 27 10 6 11 33:31 36
11 Sao Paulo 27 10 6 11 32:30 36
12 Botafogo RJ 28 9 8 11 41:45 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 28:42 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 29:32 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 33:42 32
16 Vasco 27 8 7 12 34:41 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 30:38 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 30:36 28
19 Remo 28 5 8 15 32:47 23
20 Chapecoense-SC 27 3 9 15 29:53 18
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)