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Foligno vs FC Ponsacco

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2019/2020
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Foligno play FC Ponsacco in the Serie D - Group E 2019/2020. Foligno are favorites here. Recently, Foligno averaged 1.26 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. FC Ponsacco averaged 0.5 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Foligno won 2, FC Ponsacco won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 19, 2020 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.60 for Foligno and 1.25 for FC Ponsacco. This points to a Foligno double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Foligno
22%
Draws
13%
FC Ponsacco
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

94% / Very High Confidence
  • Foligno picked up more points recently compared to FC Ponsacco.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.60 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Foligno Clean Sheet 19%
FC Ponsacco Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Foligno FC Ponsacco
Matches Played 34 22
Wins 14 1
Draws 9 4
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 1.26 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.03 2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 19, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs FC Ponsacco
3:1
Sep 15, 2019 Serie D - Group E
FC Ponsacco vs Foligno
0:0
Jan 17, 2016 Serie D - Group E
FC Ponsacco vs Foligno
1:0
Sep 16, 2015 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs FC Ponsacco
3:0
May 3, 2015 Serie D - Group E
FC Ponsacco vs Foligno
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Foligno Compare

Top Goalscorer Peluso M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Schiaroli L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

FC Ponsacco Compare

Top Goalscorer Noccioli F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Foligno 62 / 100
FC Ponsacco 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Foligno FC Ponsacco

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Foligno Win (1)
Secondary Pick Foligno & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.7%
1.75
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Foligno attacking → ← attacking FC Ponsacco

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Foligno scored in 65% of their last 34 games.

FC Ponsacco let in goals in 95% of their last 22 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Foligno went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FC Ponsacco lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 7
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00