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Foligno vs Prato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Verde F.
84' Event
Mencagli M.

AI Match Summary

Prato in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Prato.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Foligno
20%
Draws
56%
Prato
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Prato lately — more wins on the board than Foligno.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Prato taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Foligno Clean Sheet 16%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Foligno Prato
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 18
Draws 8 5
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 1.2 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Prato
0:2
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Foligno
3:1
Mar 11, 2007 Lega Pro C2/B
Foligno vs Prato
3:0
Oct 29, 2006 Lega Pro C2/B
Prato vs Foligno
0:0
Apr 15, 2006 Lega Pro C2/B
Foligno vs Prato
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Foligno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer Verde F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mencagli M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Foligno 28 / 100
Prato 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Foligno Prato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Prato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Foligno scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Foligno stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Prato let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Foligno VS Prato
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Foligno

(Home)
03 May
Foligno
1 : 0
Cannara
26 Apr
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0
Foligno
19 Apr
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 0
Foligno
12 Apr
Foligno
0 : 2
Prato
02 Apr
Ghiviborgo
0 : 0
Foligno
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Prato

(Away)
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0
Grosseto
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)