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Foligno vs Vigor Senigallia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Sun, Nov 1, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Foligno host Vigor Senigallia in the Serie D - Group F. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Foligno at 1.14 goals for, 1.1 against; Vigor Senigallia at 1.76 for, 1.34 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.56 vs 1.50, favoring Vigor Senigallia. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Foligno
20%
Draws
33%
Vigor Senigallia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vigor Senigallia come out ahead of Foligno on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Foligno taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Foligno Clean Sheet 16%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Foligno Vigor Senigallia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 13
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.14 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Foligno 48 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Foligno Vigor Senigallia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Foligno Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Foligno scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Vigor Senigallia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Foligno has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Vigor Senigallia has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Foligno VS Vigor Senigallia
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Foligno

(Home)
18 Oct
Foligno
0 : 1
Giulianova
11 Oct
Maceratese
0 : 2
Foligno
04 Oct
Foligno
1 : 0
Angelana
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1
Foligno
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
Page 1 of 6

Vigor Senigallia

(Away)
18 Oct
Santegidiese
0 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
11 Oct
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 2
Atletico Ascoli
04 Oct
Teramo
6 : 4
Vigor Senigallia
27 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
0 : 0
Fossombrone
20 Sept
Termoli
1 : 2
Vigor Senigallia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 8 6 2 0 17:5 20
2 Teramo 8 6 1 1 20:11 19
3 Vigor Senigallia 8 5 1 2 17:12 16
4 Foligno 8 5 1 2 9:7 16
5 Notaresco Calcio 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
6 Ancona 8 4 2 2 12:8 14
7 Atletico Ascoli 8 4 1 3 13:10 13
8 Fossombrone 8 4 1 3 10:13 13
9 Montecchio Gallo 8 3 2 3 9:9 11
10 Giulianova 8 3 1 4 11:11 10
11 Lanciano FC 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
12 Termoli 8 3 1 4 6:7 10
13 Santegidiese 8 2 2 4 7:11 8
14 Pietralunga 8 2 2 4 5:9 8
15 Maceratese 8 2 1 5 9:16 7
16 Recanatese 8 1 3 4 11:14 6
17 Angelana 8 1 1 6 5:12 4
18 Sporting Trestina 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)