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Stadium Background

Follonica Gavorrano vs Grassina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Mutton C.
47' Event
Pino A.

AI Match Summary

Follonica Gavorrano in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Follonica Gavorrano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Follonica Gavorrano
20%
Draws
7%
Grassina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Follonica Gavorrano have won more games recently than Grassina.
  • Model gives Follonica Gavorrano a 73% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 48%
Over 2.5 Goals 14%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 68%
Grassina Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Follonica Gavorrano Grassina
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 10 4
Draws 10 10
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.3 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 0.53
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Grassina
2:0
Jun 9, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Grassina
2:4
Feb 17, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Grassina vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:1
Feb 23, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Grassina
2:0
Oct 20, 2019 Serie D - Group E
Grassina vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Follonica Gavorrano Compare

Top Goalscorer Mutton C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pino A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Grassina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.29

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Follonica Gavorrano 95 / 100
Grassina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Follonica Gavorrano Grassina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Follonica Gavorrano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Follonica Gavorrano scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Grassina conceded in 96% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: Follonica Gavorrano stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Follonica Gavorrano VS Grassina
0.88 Goals Scored 0.17
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.83
63% Over 1.5 33%
13% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Follonica Gavorrano

(Home)
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0
Grassina
10 May
Follonica Gavorrano
3 : 2
Camaiore Calcio
03 May
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 2
Tau
Page 1 of 6

Grassina

(Away)
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
13 Sept
Grassina
0 : 1
Flaminia
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0
Grassina
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Grassina
16 Jun
San Donato Tavarnelle
4 : 0
Grassina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 San Donato Tavarnelle 3 2 1 0 6:3 7
2 Prato 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
3 Flaminia 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
4 Follonica Gavorrano 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
5 Lucchese 3 2 0 1 7:6 6
6 Tau 3 2 0 1 6:7 6
7 Seravezza Pozzi 3 1 1 1 7:3 4
8 Siena 3 1 1 1 6:4 4
9 Montevarchi 3 1 1 1 6:4 4
10 Scandicci 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
11 Terranuova Traiana 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
12 Sasso Marconi 3 1 1 1 5:6 4
13 Mezzolara 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
14 SCD Progresso 3 1 0 2 3:8 3
15 Ternana 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
16 Grassina 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
17 Rondinella 3 0 1 2 1:6 1
18 Ghiviborgo 3 0 0 3 1:6 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)