Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Follonica Gavorrano vs Prato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Rinaldini D.
(Penalty)
35' Event
Rossetti S.
45' Event
Presta F.

AI Match Summary

Follonica Gavorrano in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Follonica Gavorrano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Follonica Gavorrano
15%
Draws
54%
Prato
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Prato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Prato have won more games recently than Follonica Gavorrano.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 17%
Prato Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Follonica Gavorrano Prato
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 17
Draws 9 5
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.13 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Prato
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Follonica Gavorrano
2:0
Jan 16, 2022 Coppa Italia Serie D
Prato vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:2
Feb 13, 2019 Serie D - Group E
Prato vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:0
Oct 24, 2018 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Prato
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Follonica Gavorrano Compare

Top Goalscorer Presta F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Prato Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossetti S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Follonica Gavorrano 36 / 100
Prato 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Follonica Gavorrano Prato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Follonica Gavorrano found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Follonica Gavorrano stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Prato let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Follonica Gavorrano VS Prato
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Follonica Gavorrano

(Home)
10 May
Follonica Gavorrano
3 : 2
Camaiore Calcio
03 May
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 2
Tau
26 Apr
Scandicci
1 : 3
Follonica Gavorrano
19 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 1
Orvietana
12 Apr
Sporting Trestina
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
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Prato

(Away)
17 May
Prato
1 : 2
Seravezza Pozzi
10 May
Prato
3 : 1
Siena
03 May
Prato
1 : 0
Montevarchi
26 Apr
Sporting Trestina
0 : 2
Prato
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0
Grosseto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Grosseto 34 22 6 6 58:25 72
2 Tau 34 18 9 7 53:33 63
3 Prato 34 20 5 9 49:29 63
4 Siena 34 17 9 8 57:35 60
5 Seravezza Pozzi 34 15 12 7 42:29 57
6 Terranuova Traiana 34 14 9 11 28:30 51
7 Foligno 34 14 9 11 45:37 51
8 Scandicci 34 11 15 8 39:32 48
9 Montevarchi 34 10 16 8 28:32 46
10 Sporting Trestina 34 10 12 12 40:42 42
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 9 13 12 30:35 40
12 Ghiviborgo 34 10 10 14 42:44 40
13 Orvietana 34 9 11 14 33:37 38
14 Follonica Gavorrano 34 9 10 15 36:49 37
15 Camaiore Calcio 34 9 8 17 41:54 35
16 Poggibonsi 34 7 10 17 29:46 31
17 Cannara 34 6 8 20 24:59 26
18 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 34 2 16 16 20:46 22
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)