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Follonica Gavorrano vs Sasso Marconi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Biancon E.
71' Event
Pellegrini T.
73' Event
Marra N.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E game between Follonica Gavorrano and Sasso Marconi finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Follonica Gavorrano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Follonica Gavorrano
30%
Draws
19%
Sasso Marconi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Follonica Gavorrano come out ahead of Sasso Marconi on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Follonica Gavorrano's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 68%
Sasso Marconi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Follonica Gavorrano Sasso Marconi
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.31 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Sasso Marconi
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Follonica Gavorrano Compare

Top Goalscorer Biancon E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pellegrini T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sasso Marconi Compare

Top Goalscorer Marra N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Follonica Gavorrano 95 / 100
Sasso Marconi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Follonica Gavorrano Sasso Marconi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Follonica Gavorrano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sasso Marconi let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

Follonica Gavorrano has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Follonica Gavorrano's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Follonica Gavorrano VS Sasso Marconi
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Follonica Gavorrano

(Home)
04 Oct
Flaminia
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1
Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2
Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0
Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1
Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6

Sasso Marconi

(Away)
07 Oct
Sasso Marconi
1 : 0
Cittadella Vis Modena
04 Oct
Sasso Marconi
0 : 2
Scandicci
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1
Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
Sasso Marconi
0 : 1
Prato
16 Sept
Flaminia
2 : 2
Sasso Marconi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Follonica Gavorrano 6 4 2 0 9:3 14
2 Prato 6 4 2 0 9:4 14
3 Lucchese 6 4 1 1 16:11 13
4 Tau 6 4 0 2 10:12 12
5 Scandicci 6 3 2 1 10:5 11
6 Flaminia 6 3 2 1 9:9 11
7 Seravezza Pozzi 6 3 1 2 14:5 10
8 Siena 6 3 1 2 13:8 10
9 Ternana 6 2 2 2 9:5 8
10 Terranuova Traiana 6 2 2 2 11:9 8
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Montevarchi 6 2 1 3 9:11 7
13 Mezzolara 6 1 4 1 4:6 7
14 Rondinella 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
15 Sasso Marconi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
16 SCD Progresso 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
17 Grassina 6 0 2 4 6:13 2
18 Ghiviborgo 6 0 1 5 3:10 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)