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Fortaleza vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Luan Freitas
55'
Lucas Sasha
64'
Sub
Rodrigo In: Ronald
Out: Rodrigo

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Fortaleza
35%
Draws
30%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Fortaleza have won more games recently than Ceara.
  • Win probability leans Fortaleza's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Fortaleza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%
Ceara Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Ceara
Matches Played 40 38
Wins 20 18
Draws 10 7
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.66
Goals Conceded 0.78 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Serie B
Ceara vs Fortaleza
2:1
Apr 9, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Ceara vs Fortaleza
2:0
Mar 8, 2026 Cearense
Ceara vs Fortaleza
1:2
Mar 1, 2026 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Ceara
1:1
Feb 8, 2026 Cearense
Ceara vs Fortaleza
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Emanoel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucca
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 68 / 100
Ceara 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fortaleza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Fortaleza scored in 75% of their last 40 games.

Ceara has conceded goals in 71% of their last 38 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Ceara
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
31 Aug
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Operario-PR
23 Aug
Criciuma
0 : 2
Fortaleza
19 Aug
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Juventude
0 : 0
Fortaleza
09 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Fortaleza
Page 1 of 8

Ceara

(Away)
30 Aug
Vila Nova FC
2 : 0
Ceara
22 Aug
Ceara
2 : 1
Londrina
19 Aug
Nautico
1 : 0
Ceara
15 Aug
Ceara
1 : 3
Cuiaba
07 Aug
Ceara
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
Page 1 of 8

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ferroviario 0
Fortaleza 4
Floresta EC 0
Ceara 7
Final
Fortaleza 3
Ceara 2
Ferroviario 1
Floresta EC 0