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Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

42'
Palacios S.
42'
Luiz Fernando
45'
Baianinho

AI Match Summary

Fortaleza in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fortaleza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Fortaleza
6%
Draws
4%
Ponte Preta
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fortaleza lately — more wins on the board than Ponte Preta.
  • Model gives Fortaleza a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%
Ponte Preta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Ponte Preta
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 4
Draws 6 3
Losses 8 22
Goals Scored 1 0.38
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta
2:0
Oct 26, 2018 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta
1:1
Jul 8, 2018 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza
2:0
Nov 10, 2009 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Ponte Preta
2:1
Aug 8, 2009 Serie B
Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Miritello J. B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mailton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ponte Preta Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 95 / 100
Ponte Preta 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Ponte Preta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ponte Preta conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Difficult form: Ponte Preta registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Fortaleza found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Ponte Preta
1 Goals Scored 0.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
18 Jul
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Novorizontino
12 Jul
Atletico GO
1 : 0
Fortaleza
03 Jul
Fortaleza
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
28 Jun
Fortaleza
2 : 1
Sport Recife
21 Jun
CRB
1 : 1
Fortaleza
Page 1 of 6

Ponte Preta

(Away)
18 Jul
Ponte Preta
1 : 2
Goias
08 Jul
Ponte Preta
1 : 2
Criciuma
03 Jul
Fortaleza
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
28 Jun
Atletico GO
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
22 Jun
Ponte Preta
0 : 2
Novorizontino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma18106222:1236
2EC Juventude1895419:832
3Operario-PR1895424:2032
4Vila Nova FC1894525:2131
5Fortaleza1894521:1731
6Novorizontino1886428:1730
7Goias1884620:2428
8Sao Bernardo1876524:1727
9Sport Recife1869323:1727
10Atletico GO1867519:1925
11Cuiaba1859414:1324
12Athletic Club1859416:1624
13CRB1865728:3223
14Nautico1863922:2321
15Botafogo SP1856720:1821
16Londrina1855825:2520
17Ceara1847716:2119
18Avai1845919:2517
19Ponte Preta18221412:358
20America MG18151212:298
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)