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Fortaleza vs Sport Recife Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Luiz Fernando
13'
Marcelo Ajul
46'
Sub
Joao Lucas In: Kaua Rocha
Out: Joao Lucas

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Fortaleza
20%
Draws
36%
Sport Recife
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Fortaleza have won more games recently than Sport Recife.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Fortaleza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fortaleza, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Fortaleza have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Sport Recife
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.21 1.34
Goals Conceded 1 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
2:1
May 28, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza
0:2
May 21, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
1:2
Apr 30, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
2:0
Sep 27, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Miritello J. B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vitinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sport Recife Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 41 / 100
Sport Recife 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Sport Recife

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fortaleza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Fortaleza remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Sport Recife has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Sport Recife
1.38 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2
Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Goias
0 : 1
Fortaleza
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Sport Recife

(Away)
01 Oct
Athletic Club
1 : 2
Sport Recife
26 Sept
Nautico
3 : 1
Sport Recife
19 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 1
EC Juventude
16 Sept
CRB
2 : 1
Sport Recife
11 Sept
Sport Recife
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
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