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Fortaleza vs Sport Recife

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Castelão
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Luiz Fernando
13'
Marcelo Ajul
46'
Sub
Joao Lucas In: Kaua Rocha
Out: Joao Lucas

AI Match Summary

Fortaleza in this Copa do Nordeste matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fortaleza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Fortaleza
22%
Draws
18%
Sport Recife
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Not much separates Fortaleza and Sport Recife on recent form.
  • Win probability leans Fortaleza's way, sitting at 60%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Copa do Nordeste fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Fortaleza have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%
Sport Recife Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Sport Recife
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 17 17
Draws 7 8
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
2:1
May 28, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza
0:2
May 21, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
1:2
Apr 30, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
2:0
Sep 27, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fortaleza vs Sport Recife
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Miritello J. B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vitinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Sport Recife Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 68 / 100
Sport Recife 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Sport Recife

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Fortaleza has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Sport Recife let in goals in 55% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Sport Recife
1 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%