Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Forte vs Desportiva Ferroviaria

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estadio Municipal Almiro Ofranti
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Forte play Desportiva Ferroviaria in the Capixaba. It looks like a close match. Recently, Forte averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Desportiva Ferroviaria averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Forte won 0, Desportiva Ferroviaria won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 12, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Forte and 0.81 for Desportiva Ferroviaria. This points to a Forte double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Forte
27%
Draws
36%
Desportiva Ferroviaria
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Forte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Forte picked up more points recently compared to Desportiva Ferroviaria.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Forte Clean Sheet 26%
Desportiva Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forte Desportiva Ferroviaria
Matches Played 21 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.1 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Capixaba
Forte vs Desportiva Ferroviaria
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Forte Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Desportiva Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forte 39 / 100
Desportiva Ferroviaria 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forte Desportiva Ferroviaria

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Forte or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Forte attacking → ← attacking Desportiva Ferroviaria

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Forte scored in 52% of their last 21 games.

Desportiva Ferroviaria let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Forte went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Desportiva Ferroviaria lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 40
0.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Vitoria ES962114:420
2Serra942310:614
3Vilavelhense94148:1013
4Rio Branco ES934210:613
5Porto Vitoria93427:513
6Desportiva Ferroviaria932410:1111
7Real Noroeste93249:1311
8Forte92525:411
9Capixaba SC93156:1310
10Rio Branco-VN90548:155