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Forte vs Serra

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Vargem Alta, Vargem Alta
Forte Logo

Forte

2 - 0
FT
Serra Logo

Serra

Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Rael
27'
Edimar
31'
Valdeir
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba game between Forte and Serra finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Forte.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Forte
35%
Draws
16%
Serra
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Forte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Forte haven't matched Serra's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Forte a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Serra have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Forte Clean Sheet 68%
Serra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forte Serra
Matches Played 21 34
Wins 7 20
Draws 8 3
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.71
Goals Conceded 0.71 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Capixaba
Forte vs Serra
2:0
Oct 11, 2025 Capixaba 2
Serra vs Forte
1:0
Aug 24, 2025 Capixaba 2
Forte vs Serra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Forte Compare

Top Goalscorer Rael
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Serra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forte 51 / 100
Serra 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forte Serra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Forte remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Serra has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Forte scored in 52% of their last 21 outings.

Serra's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

Forte VS Serra
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Forte

(Home)
01 Mar
Vitoria ES
4 : 1
Forte
23 Feb
Forte
1 : 1
Vitoria ES
12 Feb
Forte
0 : 1
Desportiva Ferroviaria
07 Feb
Rio Branco ES
0 : 0
Forte
05 Feb
Forte
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
Page 1 of 5

Serra

(Away)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria ES 9 6 2 1 14:4 20
2 Serra 9 4 2 3 10:6 14
3 Vilavelhense 9 4 1 4 8:10 13
4 Rio Branco ES 9 3 4 2 10:6 13
5 Porto Vitoria 9 3 4 2 7:5 13
6 Desportiva Ferroviaria 9 3 2 4 10:11 11
7 Real Noroeste 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
8 Forte 9 2 5 2 5:4 11
9 Capixaba SC 9 3 1 5 6:13 10
10 Rio Branco-VN 9 0 5 4 8:15 5
Promotion - Capixaba (Play Offs)
Relegation - Capixaba 2 2027 (Main)