Sport Picks

USA

US Open Cup 2025 Breese Stevens Field

FC Tulsa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Forward Madison play FC Tulsa in the US Open Cup 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Forward Madison averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. FC Tulsa averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Forward Madison won 0, FC Tulsa won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 2, 2025 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Forward Madison and 1.19 for FC Tulsa. This points to a FC Tulsa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Forward Madison

18%

Draws

47%

FC Tulsa

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: FC Tulsa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Forward Madison picked up more points recently compared to FC Tulsa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Forward Madison Clean Sheet 20%

FC Tulsa Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Forward Madison	FC Tulsa
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	12	14
Draws	4	6
Losses	12	8
Goals Scored	1.36	1.39
Goals Conceded	1.57	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2025 US Open Cup

Forward Madison vs FC Tulsa

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 0 - 2

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Forward Madison Compare

Top Goalscorer Bartman N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

FC Tulsa Compare

Top Goalscorer Damm O.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Elmedkhar K.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forward Madison 36 / 100

FC Tulsa 45 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Forward Madison FC Tulsa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Tulsa or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Forward Madison attacking → ← attacking FC Tulsa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Forward Madison scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

FC Tulsa let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Forward Madison went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FC Tulsa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 48

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13