Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A 2024/2025

Varese FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Fossano play Varese FC in the Serie D - Group A 2024/2025. Varese FC are favorites here. Recently, Fossano averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Varese FC averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. In past meetings, Fossano won 0, Varese FC won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 2, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Fossano and 1.30 for Varese FC. This points to a Varese FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%

Fossano

19%

Draws

59%

Varese FC

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Varese FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence

Fossano picked up more points recently compared to Varese FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.30 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 57%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Fossano Clean Sheet 19%

Varese FC Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Fossano	Varese FC
Matches Played	30	34
Wins	6	16
Draws	4	8
Losses	20	10
Goals Scored	0.83	1.38
Goals Conceded	1.77	1.44

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Fossano vs Varese FC

Possession: 54% - 41% Cards: 2 - 1

0:1

Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Fossano

Possession: 48% - 40% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Feb 2, 2022 Serie D - Group A

Fossano vs Varese FC

Possession: 41% - 44% Cards: 4 - 0

0:4

Sep 26, 2021 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Fossano

Possession: 60% - 50% Cards: 0 - 3

3:2

Mar 7, 2021 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Fossano

Possession: 47% - 42% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fossano Compare

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Romero N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fossano 24 / 100

Varese FC 55 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Fossano Varese FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varese FC Win (2)

Secondary Pick Varese FC & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +57.1%

7.14

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.7%

1.96

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fossano attacking → ← attacking Varese FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fossano scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Varese FC let in goals in 68% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Fossano went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Varese FC lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 56

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bra	36	24	6	6	70:24	78
2	NovaRomentin	36	21	8	7	75:27	71
3	Gozzano	36	18	11	7	52:34	65
4	Vado	36	19	8	9	51:37	65
5	Lavagnese	36	18	10	8	49:35	64
6	Varese FC	36	17	11	8	47:34	62
7	Ligorna	36	16	10	10	55:42	58
8	Chisola	36	14	8	14	43:37	50
9	Saluzzo	36	12	14	10	39:35	50
10	Sanremese	36	10	15	11	31:33	45
11	Asti Calcio	36	11	12	13	36:46	45
12	Derthona FbC	36	11	11	14	41:50	44
13	Oltrepo	36	10	10	16	38:59	40
14	Imperia Calcio	36	10	8	18	52:58	38
15	Vogherese	36	8	13	15	31:44	37
16	Cairese	36	9	10	17	32:47	37
17	AC Chieri	36	7	10	19	33:58	31
18	Borgaro	36	8	4	24	34:77	28
19	Fossano	36	7	5	24	31:63	26
20	Albenga	0	0	0	0	0:0	-1