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Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City Prediction & H2H Stats

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Kwaraa Stadium, Babati
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Match Events

85' Event
87' Event

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara game between Fountain Gate and Mbeya City finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbeya City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Fountain Gate
20%
Draws
57%
Mbeya City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mbeya City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Mbeya City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Mbeya City taking it.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Fountain Gate Clean Sheet 18%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fountain Gate Mbeya City
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 0.87 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City
0:2
Mar 3, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate
0:1
Sep 18, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City
0:1
Dec 22, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Fountain Gate
1:1
Aug 21, 2022 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Mbeya City
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fountain Gate 20 / 100
Mbeya City 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fountain Gate Mbeya City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbeya City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbeya City let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Fountain Gate scored in 48% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Fountain Gate stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fountain Gate VS Mbeya City
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fountain Gate

(Home)
13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Fountain Gate
31 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Young Africans
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Mbeya City
25 Aug
Namungo
1 : 0
Fountain Gate
18 Aug
Fountain Gate
1 : 0
Mashujaa
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Mbeya City

(Away)
12 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
2 : 0
Mbeya City
04 Sept
TRA United
0 : 0
Mbeya City
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Mbeya City
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1
Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Dodoma Jiji
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 6 6 0 0 16:2 18
2 Simba 6 6 0 0 11:2 18
3 Azam 7 4 2 1 11:7 14
4 Singida Black Stars 6 3 1 2 13:9 10
5 Polisi Tanzania 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
6 Mbeya City 6 3 1 2 6:4 10
7 Dodoma Jiji 6 3 1 2 4:4 10
8 Mashujaa 6 3 0 3 6:6 9
9 Geita Gold 6 2 1 3 9:8 7
10 JKT Tanzania 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
11 Coastal Union 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
12 TRA United 6 1 3 2 6:6 6
13 Namungo 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
14 Fountain Gate 6 1 1 4 2:9 4
15 Kagera Sugar 6 0 2 4 5:14 2
16 Pamba 6 0 1 5 4:13 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)