Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Francavilla vs Acerrana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Esposito R.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Barone V.
40' Event
Barone V.

AI Match Summary

Francavilla in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Francavilla
6%
Draws
4%
Acerrana
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Francavilla lately — more wins on the board than Acerrana.
  • Francavilla are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Francavilla Clean Sheet 20%
Acerrana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Francavilla Acerrana
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 3
Draws 8 3
Losses 11 24
Goals Scored 1.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Acerrana
4:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Francavilla
1:0
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Francavilla
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Acerrana
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Barone V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cabrera I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Acerrana Compare

Top Goalscorer Donnarumma G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Francavilla 85 / 100
Acerrana 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Francavilla Acerrana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Acerrana let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Francavilla has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Acerrana registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Francavilla found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

Scoring Trends

Francavilla VS Acerrana
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Francavilla

(Home)
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0
Afragolese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 3
Francavilla
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Fidelis Andria
0 : 0
Francavilla
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Acerrana

(Away)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Barletta
3 : 0
Acerrana
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Acerrana
2 : 5
Sarnese
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)