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Francavilla vs Acerrana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Esposito R.
(Penalty)
38' Event
Barone V.
40' Event
Barone V.

AI Match Summary

Francavilla in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Francavilla
20%
Draws
0%
Acerrana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Francavilla lately — more wins on the board than Acerrana.
  • Francavilla are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Francavilla Clean Sheet 20%
Acerrana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Francavilla Acerrana
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 12 3
Draws 9 3
Losses 12 24
Goals Scored 1.21 0.6
Goals Conceded 1.12 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Acerrana
4:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Francavilla
1:0
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Francavilla
0:1
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Acerrana
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Barone V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cabrera I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Acerrana Compare

Top Goalscorer Donnarumma G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Francavilla 85 / 100
Acerrana 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Francavilla Acerrana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Acerrana let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Francavilla has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Acerrana registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Francavilla found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

Scoring Trends

Francavilla VS Acerrana
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Francavilla

(Home)
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0
Afragolese
26 Apr
Sarnese
2 : 2
Francavilla
19 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 3
Francavilla
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Fidelis Andria
0 : 0
Francavilla
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Acerrana

(Away)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Barletta
3 : 0
Acerrana
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Acerrana
2 : 5
Sarnese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)