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France vs Italy - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Stade de France, Paris - Saint-Denis
France Logo

France

1 - 1
FT
Italy Logo

Italy

Our Tip

Match Events

54'
Fagioli N.
55' Event
Olise M.
Assist: Cherki R.
62'
Sub
Tonali S. In: Barella N.
Out: Tonali S.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between France and Italy finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
France
20%
Draws
40%
Italy
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Italy haven't matched France's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
France Clean Sheet 20%
Italy Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric France Italy
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 24 18
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 2.2 1.94
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.10
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 UEFA Nations League
France vs Italy
1:1
Nov 17, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs France
1:3
Sep 6, 2024 UEFA Nations League
France vs Italy
1:3
Jun 1, 2018 Friendly International
France vs Italy
3:1
Sep 1, 2016 Friendly International
Italy vs France
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

France Compare

Top Goalscorer Olise M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Bastoni A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

France 32 / 100
Italy 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
France Italy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: France scored in 91% of their last 35 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Italy has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.

France has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

France VS Italy
2.5 Goals Scored 1.57
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 71%
75% Over 2.5 43%
38% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

France

(Home)
05 Oct
France
4 : 1
Belgium
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Belgium
0 : 1
France
25 Sept
Turkey
0 : 1
France
18 Jul
France
4 : 6
England
Page 1 of 7

Italy

(Away)
05 Oct
Italy
3 : 1
Turkey
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4
Italy
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)