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Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fratria II host Ustrem Donchevo in the Third League - North-East. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Ustrem Donchevo have shipped 2.1 goals a game lately, while Fratria II have conceded 2.69 and scored 1.21. Head-to-head, Fratria II have won 0 to Ustrem Donchevo's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 21, 2026, ending 5:0. The numbers (2.06 xG vs 2.88) point toward Ustrem Donchevo. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Fratria II
15%
Draws
8%
Ustrem Donchevo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fratria II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

8% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ustrem Donchevo lately — more wins on the board than Fratria II.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Third League - North-East form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Ustrem Donchevo have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Fratria II Clean Sheet 10%
Ustrem Donchevo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fratria II Ustrem Donchevo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 4 4
Losses 17 14
Goals Scored 1.21 2.03
Goals Conceded 2.69 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Fratria II
5:0
Aug 16, 2025 Third League - North-East
Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo
2:4
Mar 26, 2025 Third League - North-East
Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo
1:3
Aug 18, 2024 Third League - North-East
Ustrem Donchevo vs Fratria II
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fratria II 34 / 100
Ustrem Donchevo 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fratria II Ustrem Donchevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ustrem Donchevo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ustrem Donchevo let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.25 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Fratria II remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Ustrem Donchevo has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fratria II VS Ustrem Donchevo
0.88 Goals Scored 2
3.75 Goals Conceded 3.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

Fratria II

(Home)
03 Oct
Dorostol
1 : 2
Fratria II
26 Sept
Fratria II
1 : 0
Devnya 2005
19 Sept
Septemvri Tervel
2 : 1
Fratria II
12 Sept
Fratria II
2 : 1
Benkovski
05 Sept
Volov Shumen
9 : 0
Fratria II
Page 1 of 6

Ustrem Donchevo

(Away)
03 Oct
Devnya 2005
2 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
26 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
1 : 1
Septemvri Tervel
20 Sept
Benkovski
3 : 2
Ustrem Donchevo
12 Sept
Ustrem Donchevo
2 : 4
Volov Shumen
05 Sept
FK Riltzi
4 : 1
Ustrem Donchevo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Svetkavitsa 2014 8 5 1 2 14:5 16
2 Ludogorets III 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
3 Volov Shumen 7 5 1 1 24:6 16
4 Chernolomets 7 4 2 1 16:6 14
5 Chernomorets Balchik 6 4 2 0 10:4 14
6 Septemvri Tervel 5 3 2 0 12:5 11
7 Benkovski 5 3 1 1 13:6 10
8 Cherno More II 7 3 1 3 11:7 10
9 Botev Novi Pazar 6 2 3 1 12:9 9
10 FK Riltzi 7 3 0 4 8:15 9
11 Fratria II 8 3 0 5 9:24 9
12 Septemvri Dragoevo 7 2 2 3 12:17 8
13 Devnya 2005 7 2 0 4 8:12 9
14 Olympic Varna 7 2 0 5 15:21 6
15 Aksakovo 6 1 1 4 9:20 4
16 Ustrem Donchevo 8 0 1 7 13:26 1
17 Dorostol 6 0 0 5 2:18 0
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