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Fratria vs Botev Vratsa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Bulgarian Cup
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Bulgarian Cup. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Fratria at 1.71 goals for, 0.96 against; Botev Vratsa at 1.19 for, 1.37 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 0.88, favoring Fratria. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Fratria
30%
Draws
23%
Botev Vratsa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fratria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Botev Vratsa haven't matched Fratria's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Fratria taking it.
  • Fratria have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Fratria Clean Sheet 20%
Botev Vratsa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fratria Botev Vratsa
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 13 9
Draws 11 9
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 1.71 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fratria 85 / 100
Botev Vratsa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fratria Botev Vratsa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fratria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fratria scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Botev Vratsa let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Recent resilience: Fratria stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Botev Vratsa registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fratria VS Botev Vratsa
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Fratria

(Home)
09 Oct
Etar
2 : 0
Fratria
03 Oct
Balkan Botevgrad
0 : 3
Fratria
27 Sept
Fratria
3 : 0
Spartak Pleven
20 Sept
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1 : 2
Fratria
15 Sept
Ludogorets II
1 : 1
Fratria
Page 1 of 6

Botev Vratsa

(Away)
10 Oct
Botev Vratsa
0 : 1
Spartak Varna
03 Oct
Slavia Sofia
2 : 1
Botev Vratsa
19 Sept
Dunav Ruse
2 : 2
Botev Vratsa
13 Sept
Botev Vratsa
0 : 0
Levski Sofia
04 Sept
Septemvri Sofia
2 : 3
Botev Vratsa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Chernomorets Balchik 2
Etar 3
TBD -
Spartak Varna -
Natsional Sofia 1
Gorna 3
TBD -
Septemvri Sofia -
Spartak Plovdiv 1
Botev Ihtiman 0
TBD -
Arda -
Balkan Botevgrad 0
Fratria 3
TBD -
Botev Vratsa -
Neftochimic Burgas 2
Svoge 1
TBD -
CSKA 1948 Sofia -
Botev Novi Pazar 1
Vihren 4
TBD -
Lok. Sofia -
Benkovski 0
Akademik Svishtov 3
TBD -
Slavia Sofia -
Oborishte Panagyurishte 1
Yantra Gabrovo 3
TBD -
Lok. Plovdiv -
Zagorets 0
Rilski Sportist 4
TBD -
Dunav Ruse -
Minyor Pernik 1
Beroe 2
TBD -
Ludogorets -
Volov Shumen 0
Chernomorets 1919 2
TBD -
Botev Plovdiv -
Krumovgrad 1
Spartak Pleven 2
TBD -
Levski Sofia -
Chavdar Troyan 0
Marek 4
TBD -
Cherno More -
Rodopa Smolyan 1
Nesebar 3
TBD -
CSKA Sofia -
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2
Pirin Blagoevgrad 3
Yambol 1915 0
Hebar 5
Belasitsa Petrich 1
Dobrudzha 2
Bdin Vidin 0
Montana 2
1/16-finals
Etar -
Spartak Varna -
Gorna -
Septemvri Sofia -
Spartak Plovdiv -
Arda -
Fratria -
Botev Vratsa -
Neftochimic Burgas -
CSKA 1948 Sofia -
Vihren -
Lok. Sofia -
Akademik Svishtov -
Slavia Sofia -
Yantra Gabrovo -
Lok. Plovdiv -
Rilski Sportist -
Dunav Ruse -
Beroe -
Ludogorets -
Chernomorets 1919 -
Botev Plovdiv -
Spartak Pleven -
Levski Sofia -
Marek -
Cherno More -
Nesebar -
CSKA Sofia -
Pirin Blagoevgrad -
Hebar -
Dobrudzha -
Montana -
1/8-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -