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Fratria vs Shumen 2007

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - North-East 2023/2024
Sat, Sep 30, 2023
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fratria host Shumen 2007 in the Third League - North-East 2023/2024. Little to choose between these two on current form. Fratria have averaged 1.63 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Shumen 2007's 0.8 scored and 2.87 conceded. Head-to-head, Fratria have won 0 to Shumen 2007's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 30, 2023, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.54 xG vs 1.06) point toward Fratria. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Fratria
35%
Draws
28%
Shumen 2007
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Fratria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fratria lately — more wins on the board than Shumen 2007.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Third League - North-East 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Fratria Clean Sheet 20%
Shumen 2007 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fratria Shumen 2007
Matches Played 27 15
Wins 11 3
Draws 13 1
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 1.63 0.8
Goals Conceded 1 2.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 30, 2023 Third League - North-East
Fratria vs Shumen 2007
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fratria 31 / 100
Shumen 2007 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fratria Shumen 2007

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fratria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fratria scored in 96% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Shumen 2007 conceded in 87% of 15 recent games.

Recent resilience: Fratria stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 0.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Fratria VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fratria

(Home)
20 Sept
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1 : 2
Fratria
15 Sept
Ludogorets II
1 : 1
Fratria
07 Sept
Fratria
2 : 2
Chernomorets 1919
01 Sept
Hebar
1 : 1
Fratria
29 Aug
Fratria
1 : 0
CSKA Sofia II
Page 1 of 6

Shumen 2007

(Away)
03 Jun
Chernolomets
8 : 0
Shumen 2007
21 May
Shumen 2007
3 : 2
Botev Novi Pazar
14 May
Dunav Ruse II
0 : 1
Shumen 2007
06 May
Shumen 2007
0 : 0
Dorostol
30 Apr
Ustrem Donchevo
4 : 1
Shumen 2007
Page 1 of 3

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ludogorets III 26 19 4 3 69:16 61
2 Fratria 26 19 4 3 71:20 61
3 Septemvri Tervel 26 18 4 4 52:19 58
4 Cherno More II 26 16 8 2 49:17 56
5 Chernolomets 26 17 2 7 54:31 53
6 Spartak Varna II 26 16 2 8 66:27 50
7 Benkovski 26 11 2 13 48:45 35
8 Dorostol 26 10 4 12 36:50 34
9 FK Riltzi 26 9 6 11 40:45 33
10 Ustrem Donchevo 26 7 4 15 36:58 25
11 Svetkavitsa 26 4 7 15 26:54 19
12 Dunav Ruse II 26 4 4 18 26:64 16
13 Lokomotiv Ruse 26 2 5 19 22:73 11
14 Kubrat 26 2 0 24 10:86 6
15 Shumen 2007 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Sportist Toshevo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Vtora liga 2024/2025 (Main)