Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Freiberg vs Mainz II

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Lee G.
56' Event
Steinkotter J.
59' Event
Mustapha S.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Sudwest game between Freiberg and Mainz II finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Freiberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Freiberg
30%
Draws
18%
Mainz II
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Freiberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Mainz II have managed 1.46 goals a game lately — Freiberg are scoring more at 2.24.
  • Win probability leans Freiberg's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Mainz II have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Freiberg Clean Sheet 14%
Mainz II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freiberg Mainz II
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 2.24 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Mainz II
5:0
Apr 25, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Mainz II
1:2
Oct 25, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiberg
2:1
Apr 5, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Mainz II
0:1
Oct 5, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiberg
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Freiberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Mustapha S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lee G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Mainz II Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiberg 84 / 100
Mainz II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freiberg Mainz II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiberg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiberg scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Freiberg stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Mainz II's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Freiberg VS Mainz II
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Freiberg

(Home)
12 Sept
Freiberg
5 : 0
Mainz II
08 Sept
Sandhausen
0 : 0
Freiberg
04 Sept
Ulm
4 : 4
Freiberg
29 Aug
Freiberg
2 : 1
Eintracht Frankfurt II
22 Aug
VfR Mannheim
0 : 0
Freiberg
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Mainz II

(Away)
12 Sept
Freiberg
5 : 0
Mainz II
09 Sept
Mainz II
1 : 2
VfR Mannheim
05 Sept
Stutt. Kickers
1 : 2
Mainz II
30 Aug
Mainz II
1 : 3
Aalen
22 Aug
Kickers Offenbach
3 : 1
Mainz II
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19:8 19
2 Stutt. Kickers 8 5 1 2 15:11 16
3 Freiberg 7 4 3 0 19:5 15
4 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 9:7 13
5 FC 08 Homburg 7 4 1 2 10:9 13
6 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
7 Aalen 7 3 3 1 9:6 12
8 Freiburg II 7 2 4 1 13:9 10
9 TSV Steinbach Haiger 7 2 3 2 12:12 9
10 Kassel 7 3 0 4 12:13 9
11 VfR Mannheim 7 1 5 1 6:6 8
12 Sandhausen 7 2 2 3 11:16 8
13 Eintracht Frankfurt II 7 2 1 4 10:12 7
14 Astoria Walldorf 7 1 3 3 8:12 6
15 Mainz II 7 2 0 5 8:17 6
16 Fulda-Lehnerz 7 1 2 4 10:13 5
17 Kaiserslautern II 7 1 2 4 5:17 5
18 Ulm 7 0 3 4 9:16 3
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)