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Freiberg vs Mainz II - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Lee G.
56' Event
Steinkotter J.
59' Event
Mustapha S.

AI Match Summary

The Regionalliga Sudwest game between Freiberg and Mainz II finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Freiberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Freiberg
35%
Draws
23%
Mainz II
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Freiberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Mainz II have managed 1.26 goals a game lately — Freiberg are scoring more at 1.9.
  • Win probability leans Freiberg's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Mainz II have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Freiberg Clean Sheet 20%
Mainz II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freiberg Mainz II
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 10
Draws 12 6
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.9 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Mainz II
5:0
Apr 25, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Mainz II
1:2
Oct 25, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiberg
2:1
Apr 5, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiberg vs Mainz II
0:1
Oct 5, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiberg
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Freiberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Mustapha S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Lee G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Mainz II Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiberg 85 / 100
Mainz II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freiberg Mainz II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiberg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiberg scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Mainz II has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Freiberg stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Freiberg VS Mainz II
2.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Freiberg

(Home)
31 Oct
Freiberg
0 : 0
Astoria Walldorf
23 Oct
Kickers Offenbach
1 : 1
Freiberg
17 Oct
Freiberg
3 : 0
Fulda-Lehnerz
11 Oct
Freiburg II
1 : 2
Freiberg
03 Oct
Freiberg
2 : 2
TSV Steinbach Haiger
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Mainz II

(Away)
30 Oct
Mainz II
2 : 1
Sandhausen
24 Oct
Fulda-Lehnerz
3 : 1
Mainz II
17 Oct
Mainz II
1 : 1
Ulm
10 Oct
Astoria Walldorf
1 : 1
Mainz II
03 Oct
Mainz II
0 : 2
Freiburg II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aalen 14 9 3 2 24:11 30
2 VfR Mannheim 14 8 5 1 25:11 29
3 Freiberg 14 7 7 0 32:13 28
4 Kickers Offenbach 14 7 3 4 27:19 24
5 Stutt. Kickers 14 7 2 5 22:19 23
6 Eintracht Trier 14 7 2 5 16:17 23
7 Freiburg II 14 5 6 3 25:19 21
8 FC 08 Homburg 14 5 6 3 18:17 21
9 Sandhausen 14 5 4 5 21:24 19
10 TSV Steinbach Haiger 14 4 5 5 22:22 17
11 Eintracht Frankfurt II 14 5 1 8 18:22 16
12 Astoria Walldorf 14 3 5 6 20:22 14
13 FSV Frankfurt 14 3 5 6 22:25 14
14 Kassel 14 4 2 8 21:29 14
15 Mainz II 14 4 2 8 15:27 14
16 Fulda-Lehnerz 14 3 3 8 18:28 12
17 Ulm 14 1 8 5 17:24 11
18 Kaiserslautern II 14 2 5 7 16:30 11
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)