Sport Picks

Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Besiktas Park

Aston Villa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Freiburg play Aston Villa in the Europa League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Freiburg averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. Aston Villa averaged 1.65 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, Freiburg won 0, Aston Villa won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 20, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Freiburg and 1.94 for Aston Villa. This points to a Aston Villa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Freiburg

15%

Draws

48%

Aston Villa

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aston Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Freiburg picked up more points recently compared to Aston Villa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 60%

Over 3.5 Goals 36%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Freiburg Clean Sheet 10%

Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Freiburg	Aston Villa
Matches Played	30	31
Wins	14	16
Draws	3	5
Losses	13	10
Goals Scored	1.5	1.65
Goals Conceded	1.47	1.16
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Europa League

Freiburg vs Aston Villa

Possession: 57% - 54% Cards: 4 - 0

0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Freiburg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Aston Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Tielemans Y.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Buendia E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.16

Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiburg 35 / 100

Aston Villa 45 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Freiburg Aston Villa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Aston Villa or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Freiburg attacking → ← attacking Aston Villa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiburg scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Aston Villa let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Freiburg went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Aston Villa lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 53

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.38

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38