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Freiburg vs Bayern Munich - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Freiburg host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Freiburg have averaged 2.23 scored and 1.29 conceded recently, against Bayern Munich's 3.47 scored and 1.31 conceded. Past meetings favor Bayern Munich slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 2.06 vs 2.31, favoring Bayern Munich. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Freiburg
30%
Draws
32%
Bayern Munich
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Freiburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Bayern Munich have won more games recently than Freiburg.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).
  • Bayern Munich have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 10%
Bayern Munich Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freiburg Bayern Munich
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 21 25
Draws 2 5
Losses 8 2
Goals Scored 2.23 3.47
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
2:3
Nov 22, 2025 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg
6:2
Jan 25, 2025 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
1:2
Sep 1, 2024 Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg
2:0
Mar 1, 2024 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiburg 30 / 100
Bayern Munich 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freiburg Bayern Munich

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bayern Munich Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiburg found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Freiburg stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Bayern Munich let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Freiburg VS Bayern Munich
3.13 Goals Scored 3.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Freiburg

(Home)
15 Oct
Freiburg
3 : 2
Jablonec
11 Oct
Freiburg
2 : 1
Schalke
03 Oct
Freiburg
4 : 2
Luzern
19 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2
Freiburg
12 Sept
Freiburg
5 : 0
B. Monchengladbach
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Bayern Munich

(Away)
13 Oct
Viking
3 : 3
Bayern Munich
10 Oct
Augsburg
2 : 2
Bayern Munich
18 Sept
Bayern Munich
7 : 0
Union Berlin
13 Sept
Elversberg
1 : 2
Bayern Munich
10 Sept
Bayern Munich
5 : 0
Bodo/Glimt
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14:4 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11:4 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16:4 11
4 Bayer Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14:8 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15:5 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13:8 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10:10 8
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10:16 8
9 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13:10 7
10 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
11 1. FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
12 VfB Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8:9 6
13 Hamburger 5 2 0 3 5:15 6
14 Schalke 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3:7 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5:17 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9:13 3
18 B. Monchengladbach 5 0 0 5 7:18 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)