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Freiburg vs Schalke - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Freiburg host Schalke in the Bundesliga. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Recent numbers: Freiburg at 2.08 goals for, 1.36 against; Schalke at 1.86 for, 1.38 against. Head-to-head, Freiburg have won 5 to Schalke's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 23, 2023, ending 4:0. The numbers (2.38 xG vs 1.06) point toward Freiburg. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Freiburg
30%
Draws
27%
Schalke
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Freiburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Schalke haven't matched Freiburg's recent run of results.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Freiburg taking it.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Freiburg have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 20%
Schalke Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freiburg Schalke
Matches Played 36 29
Wins 21 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 2.08 1.86
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2023 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Schalke
4:0
Oct 30, 2022 Bundesliga
Schalke vs Freiburg
0:2
Apr 17, 2021 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Schalke
4:0
Dec 16, 2020 Bundesliga
Schalke vs Freiburg
0:2
Jun 27, 2020 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Schalke
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiburg 85 / 100
Schalke 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freiburg Schalke

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiburg scored in 81% of their last 36 games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Freiburg has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Schalke conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Freiburg VS Schalke
3 Goals Scored 1.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Freiburg

(Home)
19 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2
Freiburg
12 Sept
Freiburg
5 : 0
B. Monchengladbach
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1
Freiburg
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Werder Bremen
27 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Motherwell
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Schalke

(Away)
24 Sept
Rot-Weiss Oberhausen
2 : 5
Schalke
20 Sept
Schalke
0 : 0
Elversberg
11 Sept
Union Berlin
1 : 3
Schalke
05 Sept
Schalke
0 : 0
Bayern Munich
30 Aug
Augsburg
3 : 0
Schalke
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)