Sport Picks
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Germany
Bundesliga Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg 
Match Events
29'
29'
Suzuki Y.
Assist: Beste J.
45'
45'
Matanovic I.
Assist: Ginter M.
46'
46'
Sub
Beste J. In: Irie C.
Out: Beste J.
AI Match Summary
The Bundesliga game between Freiburg and Werder Bremen finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Freiburg.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
35%
24%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Freiburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Freiburg carry the better recent record into this one.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Freiburg taking it.
- Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
- Freiburg have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 19%
Werder Bremen Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Freiburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 27 |
| Wins | 19 | 11 |
| Draws | 2 | 5 |
| Losses | 7 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.32 | 1.7 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.74 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.88 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 30, 2026 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
4:1
Feb 7, 2026 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Freiburg
0:3
Feb 21, 2025 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
5:0
Oct 5, 2024 Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Freiburg
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Freiburg Compare
Top Goalscorer Suzuki Y.
3 Goals Assists Leader Matanovic I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44
Werder Bremen Compare
Top Goalscorer Stalmach D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Freiburg 85 / 100
Werder Bremen 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Freiburg Werder Bremen
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Freiburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Freiburg scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.
Werder Bremen has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Freiburg went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Freiburg VS Werder Bremen
3.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Freiburg
(Home) 18 Oct
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 1 Freiburg
15 Oct
Freiburg
3 : 2 Jablonec
11 Oct
Freiburg
2 : 1 Schalke
03 Oct
Freiburg
4 : 2 Luzern
19 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2 Freiburg
Page 1 of 6
15 Oct
Freiburg
3 : 2 Jablonec
11 Oct
Freiburg
2 : 1 Schalke
03 Oct
Freiburg
4 : 2 Luzern
12 Sept
Freiburg
5 : 0 B. Monchengladbach
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Werder Bremen
Page 1 of 4
Werder Bremen
(Away) 17 Oct
Werder Bremen
2 : 2 Paderborn
09 Oct
Dortmund
2 : 2 Werder Bremen
02 Oct
Twente
7 : 0 Werder Bremen
19 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 2 Augsburg
12 Sept
1. FC Koln
1 : 1 Werder Bremen
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Dortmund
2 : 2 Werder Bremen
02 Oct
Twente
7 : 0 Werder Bremen
12 Sept
1. FC Koln
1 : 1 Werder Bremen
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Werder Bremen
22 Aug
Luneburger Hansa
0 : 3 Werder Bremen
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:9 | 13 |
| 5 | Mainz | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14:10 | 10 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16:11 | 9 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 9 | Hamburger | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6:15 | 9 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16:12 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. FC Koln | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 15 | Schalke | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | 5 |
| 16 | Paderborn | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:17 | 5 |
| 18 | B. Monchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8:20 | 0 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)
