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Freiburg W vs Mainz W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Women Dreisamstadion, Freiburg
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Acikgoz I.
60'
Sub
Kolb L. In: Hebben J.
Out: Kolb L.
60'
Sub
Seghir S. In: Brunold C.
Out: Seghir S.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga Women game between Freiburg W and Mainz W finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Freiburg W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Freiburg W
15%
Draws
21%
Mainz W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Freiburg W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Freiburg W come out ahead of Mainz W on wins alone.
  • Model gives Freiburg W a 64% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Bundesliga Women form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Freiburg W Clean Sheet 20%
Mainz W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freiburg W Mainz W
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 4 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.73 2.24
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Bundesliga Women
Freiburg W vs Mainz W
3:0
Oct 8, 2017 DFB Pokal Women
Mainz W vs Freiburg W
0:8

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Freiburg W Compare

Top Goalscorer Acikgoz I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Brunold C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Mainz W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiburg W 85 / 100
Mainz W 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freiburg W Mainz W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freiburg W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiburg W's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Defensive concern: Mainz W conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Freiburg W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Freiburg W VS Mainz W
2.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Freiburg W

(Home)
03 Oct
Koln W
0 : 1
Freiburg W
26 Sept
Andernach W
1 : 2
Freiburg W
20 Sept
Freiburg W
1 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen W
13 Sept
Freiburg W
3 : 0
Mainz W
06 Sept
Bayern Munich W
4 : 1
Freiburg W
Page 1 of 6

Mainz W

(Away)
03 Oct
RB Leipzig W
5 : 0
Mainz W
26 Sept
Ingolstadt W
1 : 6
Mainz W
18 Sept
Mainz W
2 : 3
Eintracht Frankfurt W
13 Sept
Freiburg W
3 : 0
Mainz W
05 Sept
Mainz W
0 : 4
Koln W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich W 6 6 0 0 19:6 18
2 Wolfsburg W 6 5 0 1 18:8 15
3 Eintracht Frankfurt W 6 4 1 1 11:6 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen W 6 4 0 2 12:9 12
5 Werder Bremen W 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
6 Freiburg W 6 3 1 2 8:7 10
7 Koln W 6 3 0 3 10:8 9
8 VfB Stuttgart W 6 2 2 2 8:12 8
9 RB Leipzig W 6 2 1 3 10:9 7
10 Union Berlin W 6 2 0 4 8:11 6
11 Hoffenheim W 6 2 0 4 8:11 6
12 Hamburger W 6 1 2 3 9:8 5
13 1.FC Nurnberg W 6 0 2 4 9:21 2
14 Mainz W 6 0 0 6 3:19 0
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga Women 2027/2028 (Main)