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Friburguense vs AA Carapebus

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Santarem

AI Match Summary

AA Carapebus in this Carioca B1 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AA Carapebus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Friburguense
30%
Draws
34%
AA Carapebus
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Friburguense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AA Carapebus lately — more wins on the board than Friburguense.
  • Win probability leans Friburguense's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22.8%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 68%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Friburguense AA Carapebus
Matches Played 30 24
Wins 6 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 0.38 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Friburguense vs AA Carapebus
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Friburguense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

AA Carapebus Compare

Top Goalscorer Santarem
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Friburguense 46 / 100
AA Carapebus 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Friburguense AA Carapebus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AA Carapebus let in goals in 63% of their last 24 matches.

Attacking prowess: Friburguense scored in 47% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Difficult form: AA Carapebus registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Friburguense VS AA Carapebus
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
25% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bonsucesso1164114:722
2Sao Cristovao1154214:819
3Serrano FC1153314:1118
4Duque de Caxias1153310:918
5Niteroiense1144316:1416
6Goncalense1151511:916
7Nova Cidade114439:916
8Campo Grande113629:815
9Artsul1134411:1013
10AA Carapebus113356:1312
11Paduano EC1131712:1810
12Friburguense111193:134