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Friburguense vs Niteroiense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

32' Event
Diguinho
78'
Rian Alves

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Friburguense and Niteroiense finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Niteroiense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Friburguense
20%
Draws
80%
Niteroiense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Niteroiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Niteroiense come out ahead of Friburguense on wins alone.
  • Model gives Niteroiense a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 20%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Friburguense Niteroiense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 15
Draws 7 9
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 0.57 1.73
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2025 Carioca B1
Friburguense vs Niteroiense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Friburguense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Niteroiense Compare

Top Goalscorer Diguinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Friburguense 10 / 100
Niteroiense 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Friburguense Niteroiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niteroiense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Niteroiense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Friburguense found the back of the net in 47% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Niteroiense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Friburguense VS Niteroiense
0.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Friburguense

(Home)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Paduano EC
2 : 0
Friburguense
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
25 Oct
Sao Cristovao
3 : 1
Friburguense
18 Oct
Friburguense
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
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Niteroiense

(Away)
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Niteroiense
0 : 0
Duque de Caxias
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
24 Oct
Campo Grande
1 : 1
Niteroiense
18 Oct
Niteroiense
2 : 3
Bonsucesso
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)