Sport Picks

Brazil

Carioca B1 2024

Serrano FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Friburguense play Serrano FC in the Carioca B1 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Friburguense averaged 0.57 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Serrano FC averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Friburguense won 1, Serrano FC won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 21, 2025 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.92 for Friburguense and 1.13 for Serrano FC. This points to a Serrano FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Friburguense

31%

Draws

40%

Serrano FC

Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Serrano FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Friburguense picked up more points recently compared to Serrano FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.92 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 50%

Over 2.5 Goals 33%

Over 3.5 Goals 20%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%

Friburguense Clean Sheet 21%

Serrano FC Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 45%

Second Half Goal 48%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Friburguense	Serrano FC
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	6	11
Draws	7	12
Losses	17	9
Goals Scored	0.57	1.03
Goals Conceded	0.97	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2025 Carioca B1

Friburguense vs Serrano FC

Possession: 48% - 48% Cards: 0 - 3

1:0

Oct 5, 2024 Carioca B1

Friburguense vs Serrano FC

Possession: 46% - 47% Cards: 1 - 4

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Friburguense 30 / 100

Serrano FC 39 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Friburguense Serrano FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Serrano FC or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +22.1%

3.70

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Friburguense attacking → ← attacking Serrano FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Friburguense scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Serrano FC let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 0.50 goals.

Friburguense went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Serrano FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 45

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Artsul	8	5	1	2	10:5	16
2	Paduano EC	8	5	1	2	6:3	16
3	Sao Goncalo	8	3	4	1	10:2	13
4	Perolas Negras	8	3	2	3	8:9	11
5	Friburguense	8	2	4	2	5:4	10
6	Nova Cidade	8	2	4	2	10:11	10
7	Sao Cristovao	8	2	1	5	3:9	7
8	Serrano FC	8	1	3	4	5:9	6
9	Belford Roxo	8	0	6	2	5:10	6